Exploring the Historical Development of Kashmiri Shawl Industry and Future Prospects of the Industry

الملخص

Throughout history, the shawl industry has been one of the most important industries in Jammu and Kashmir. It is not only culturally significant but has also been a major source of exports and employment. It is well-established and recognized that the shawl industry is declining, which has aggravated in recent years. This study aimed to explore the importance of foreign trade for the development of the shawl industry, the reasons behind the decline, and its future prospect. For this study, to understand the prospects of the industry, exports data from 1995- 2017 was forecasted using ARIMA for the next 10 years. Using trade statistics, the present study has demonstrated that foreign trade has historically played a vital role in the development of the shawl industry, and its decline is rooted in the conflict and low investment spiral, which decreases its productivity and hence its competitiveness. Moreover, the study has also shown that the industry's prospects are negative, as shown by the point forecast decline. Future studies are needed to explore the relationship between the growth of the shawl industry and NSDP or employment rate in Kashmir, which can provide key insights for understanding the economy of Kashmir.