Kashmir Economic Review The Kashmir Economic Review is an old and historic academic journal published first in 1984 by Department of Economics, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (renamed as Kashmir Institute of Economics). Since very beginning, the journal enjoyed the patronage of top economists including George Abbott, Umar Chhapra, Andre Frank, Paul Streeten, AR Kemal, Zia ud Din Ahmed and Hans Singer. The journal has attracted readership and contributions from some of the best universities of United Kingdom, Japan, United Sates, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Australia. KER is a biannual journal published twice in June and December of every year. The journal aims at providing a platform to share academic knowledge in all the major fields of economics including Welfare Economics and Human Development, Unemployment, Inflation, Internationalization and economic integration, Fiscal and Monetary Policies, Financial Economics, Labor Economics, Demographic Studies, Behavior Economics, Environmental Economics and Resource Management, Econometrics, Class Conflict, Public Finance, Game theory, Econometrics, History of economic thoughts, Economics and Law, Economic Underdevelopment, Bio economics, etc. Objectives of KER Kashmir Economic Review aims to serve as a forum for the promotion of knowledge, ideas and analytical content on economics. It also aims to help authors in extending their new insights and theories in the discipline. Another objective of KER is to shoulder the struggle of new researchers in elevating themselves for gradual higher quality publishing. KER offers enough space to works on economic behaviors of multidimensional humans and the economy. With this objective in view, KER has published articles on the integration of economics with ethics, religion, spirituality and human values which all have been empirically proven as relevant for any economy in the real world.
Kashmir Institute of Economics, University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan
Factors Behind Low Saving Rates in Pakistan: Insights and Policy Recommendations
Savings are extremely important for driving an economy, its financial stability and economic growth. In this connection Pakistan faces various challenges as saving culture lacks in country and investment levels are low. The current study is a review study and it aims to pinpoint factors behind citizen’s low saving behavior and lesser adaptability to save. To highlight the link between savings, investment and economic growth, key models are taken into discussion. Harrod-Domar model, the permanent income hypothesis and Solow growth model highlight the key links. Results of the review reveals the saving behavior is influenced by GDP, inflation, interest rate, fiscal policies, remittances, demographic aspects and faith beliefs. The initiatives needed to improve savings must be introduced in the short run and also cover the long run. They include encouraging financial literacy, raising consciousness about saving instruments, offering incentives about tax while ensuring macroeconomic stability. Building consumers’ confidence to save and ensuring their trust in financial institutions has become necessary. As monitoring inflation remains a key policy objective of Uraan project and this study indicates that higher savings are possible with decline in inflation in Pakistan. Consequently, an increase in savings is expected as inflation decreases. Moreover, higher savings can support the government in achieving its economic growth targets.
Copyright (c) 2025 Kashmir Economic Review https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Social Media Platforms and Self-Employment: Evidence from South Asia
The rapid advancement of internet technologies facilitates people around the globe to connect, communicate and share different stuff through social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube. Social media has become one of the most powerful tools to flourish business activities through advertising and marketing. Instead of relying on traditional jobs, people now can develop prospects for self-employment. Self-employment in its recent form is a new phenomenon, emerged mainly in the post-pandemic era due to the emergence of the e-commerce market. The focus of previous research remained on the adverse aspect of social media on health, education, politics, etc., but very few consider its favorable impact on the corporate sector. The study investigates the impact of social media platforms on enhancing self-employment opportunities in South Asian countries by using data from 2012 to 2023. The study concludes that Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Reddit significantly impact self-employment opportunities in South Asian countries. Whereas YouTube has a negligible impact on the creation of self-employment. Conclusively, findings highlight how the widespread use of social media foster self-employment and freelancing as a source of increasing economic wellbeing in the region.
Higher Education Expansion, Graduate Unemployment, and Brain Drain: An Economic Analysis of Pakistan’s Labor Market
This paper analyzes the paradoxical increased education growth of Pakistan and the consequences of the same in brain drain and graduate unemployment. This is one of the reasons why the results of a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) have shown that the economic cost of graduates’ production exceeds the returns. The structural dynamics of two frameworks graduate unemployment and brain drain were tested using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results demonstrate that even with less growth of GDP, and lower marginal productivity, employment creation, graduate output raises unemployment in the short and long-term significantly. The concept of brain drain shows that the remittances and graduates are important elements of migration that may be regarded as the push-pull forces in the labor market. Stability and diagnostic test entail model reliability. Overall, this evidence suggests that the absence of labor absorption and the uncontrolled expansion of affiliated colleges increases domestic unemployment and migration abroad. According to the study findings, to transform human capital into a sustainable driver of development, one should harmonize higher education policies with the labor market requirements, encourage employment intensive development, and limit uncontrolled institutional proliferations.
The Resurgence of Protectionism: GTAP-based Analysis of US Reciprocal Tariffs and the Competitive Dynamics of Asian Apparel Industry
This paper assesses the economic effects of recent U.S tariff escalation, specifically regarding value added apparel exports from South Asia. Employing a multi-region, multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework derived from the GTAP model, I simulate various scenarios comprising of actual reciprocal tariffs, a universal 30% tariff on apparel, specific tariffs on Pakistan’s principal export categories, and asymmetric tariff increases on India and China. Findings reveal that global trade volumes and welfare constantly deteriorate in response to recent tariff shocks, with the U.S witnessing a decrease in GDP and trade activity, despite favourable terms-of-trade and tariff revenue impacts. South Asian exporters experience considerably varied outcomes: India and China incur the most significant contractions when tariffs increase to 52.5–61%, but Pakistan and Bangladesh acquire modest benefits from trade diversion. Pakistan's apparel exports increase by 0.6% amid asymmetric escalation; nonetheless, welfare consequences are adverse due to higher input costs and reduced U.S. demand. In cases where Pakistan is exclusively subjected to sector-specific tariffs, welfare losses are significant. In contrast, in universal tariff scenarios, Pakistan's relative losses are reduced in comparison to its regional competitors. Findings emphasise trade-offs between market-share gains and welfare losses amid increasing protectionism and suggest the necessity for predictable and supportive both domestic and diplomatic policies to sustain competitiveness in an adverse external environment.
Climate Change and Crop Productivity: Implications for Food Security in Global North and South
A special predicament in global climate-agriculture nexus is the existence of asymmetricity in empirical relationships, which the existing literature fails to capture these threshold effects. The present study addresses this gap by investigating the non-linear relationship between climate variability and crop productivity with a particular focus on global disparities between the Global South and Global North. Using panel data from 1980 to 2022, the analysis employs a panel quantile regression framework to understand the relationship across different levels of global crop productivity. The results reveal significant non-linear responses of crop production to climate variables, where moderate increases in temperature and precipitation enhance yields up to a threshold, beyond which productivity declines. Global South demonstrates higher vulnerability to rising temperatures due to limited adaptive capacity and dependence on rain-fed agriculture, while Global North exhibits greater sensitivity to excessive rainfall, although its advanced technologies and management practices help mitigate losses. These findings emphasize that climate impacts are context-specific, shaped by regional agronomic practices, technological adoption, and resource availability.
Pro-Cyclicality of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Under Global Financial Uncertainty
The study investigates the impact of external factors on the macroeconomic indicators of Pakistan and checks the cyclicality of monetary policy (MP) under global financial uncertainty and its factors. This study employed monthly data from January 2005 to December 2024. First, the study estimates the reaction function to check the cyclical behavior of monetary policy, and whether Pakistan exhibits fear of free fall through VAR and then by impulse response function found the impact of external shocks on key macroeconomic variables. Finally, through variance decomposition, we assess, if is there any external dominance. The result of the study shows that Pakistan's monetary policy initial response is counter-cyclical in the face of global financial risk but also exhibits fear of free fall behavior because SBP increases the policy rate when the currency depreciates. The variance decomposition analysis shows that about 62 percent of variation is explained by inflation in interest rate and 28 percent of variation is explained by its own lagged value. SBP does not response to output gap despite its importance in Taylor rule. SBP should incorporate the output gap more explicitly in monetary policy formulation to ensure balanced economic stabilization.
Assessing the Synergistic Effects of Export Diversification on Energy Efficiency in South Asia
This study examines the determinants of CO2 intensity in South Asian economies (except Afghanistan) from 2004 to 2023 using System GMM and Kinky Least Squares (KLS) estimation techniques. The analysis explores the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), GDP growth, trade openness, and export diversification on carbon emissions intensity. The System GMM results suggest that FDI and export diversification significantly reduce CO2 intensity, supporting the pollution halo hypothesis and structural transformation arguments. However, the KLS model, that is used to address the issue of weak instruments, presents contrasting findings, particularly on export diversification, indicating potential non-linear effects. The study highlights the importance of methodological choices in environmental econometrics and provides policy insights for sustainable development in South Asia. While GDP growth and trade openness show weaker statistical significance, the persistence of CO2 intensity (captured by the lagged dependent variable) underscores the need for long-term decarburization strategies. The findings contribute to the ongoing debate on economic growth versus environmental sustainability in emerging economies.
Measuring the Affordability of Key Food and Energy Commodities in Pakistan: An Application of Simon Abundance Framework
This study applies the Simon Abundance Framework (SAF) to assess food and energy resource affordability in Pakistan from 2007 to 2021. Developed by Tupy and Pooley (2022), the SAF uses the concept of time price, which shows the number of working hours required to purchase a good or service. It serves as an alternative measure of resource affordability, incorporating both prices and the efforts required by labour. By evaluating changes in time prices across 22 essential food and energy items for male and female workers of low and high-skilled categories, the study finds a broadbased improvement in affordability of these items in terms of time price. The findings support the argument made by Julian Simon that human efforts to innovate and find new alternatives can counteract resource scarcity despite population pressure.
Impact of Trade on Poverty and Inequality: Empirical Evidence from SAARC Countries
This study investigates the impact of trade on poverty and inequality within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. Using balanced panel data spanning from 1990 to 2022, the research focuses on understanding the connection between international trade and poverty on the one hand, and on the other trade and inequality. Poverty and inequality equations were separately estimated by employing pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) method on balanced panel data. Through regression analyses and econometric modelling, the study aims to uncover the nuanced relationship between trade policies, economic growth, poverty alleviation, and inequality within the SAARC region. The findings reveal a negative link between trade openness and poverty indicating that increasing trade helps in alleviating poverty in the SAARC region. However, the link between trade and inequality is positive. This indicates that trade policies must be thoughtfully crafted to promote fair economic growth. These insights are crucial for policymakers aiming to balance the trade expansion with social welfare in SAARC countries. The findings of this research contribute to the literature on the trade-poverty and trade-inequality nexus, offering insights for policymakers to formulate effective strategies for sustainable economic development and social inclusion in SAARC countries.
Disability and Employment: Evidence from Pakistan
Employment provides financial stability, fosters personal development, and enhances overall well-being. Various factors, such as level of education, skills, gender, and others, have been identified as critical determinants of an individual's employability. This study investigates the impact of disability on employment outcomes, utilizing data from the Labor Force Survey (LFS) 2020-21.The analysis reveals that a higher proportion of disabled individuals in rural areas are employed compared to their counterparts in urban regions. Gender-wise analysis shows that the proportion of employed disabled males relative to unemployed males is significantly higher than the corresponding proportion for disabled females. Using a logit model, the results indicate that disability significantly reduces the likelihood of employment. However, positive and significant impacts are observed for vocational training, educational attainment, and being the head of a household. Additionally, provincial disparities are evident, with individuals in Balochistan being less likely to be employed compared to those in Punjab, Sindh, and KPK. The study offers policy recommendations to overcome the employment gap for disabled people in Pakistan, focusing on the significance of targeted interventions to overcome regional differences, educational initiatives, and vocational training.
A Structural Break Unit Root Test to Test Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis of South Asian Economies
The purchasing power parity hypothesis is evaluated through examination of whether real exchange rate exhibits mean-reverting behavior implying that any transient deviations from its equilibrium level will eventually converge with the mean value. Traditional unit root tests like Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test usually fail to reject null hypothesis about unit root in the situation of structural breaks. Hence, this study utilizes structural break test for south Asian countries (Bhutan, Bangladesh, China, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) with the objective offinding out if there are structural breaks in data collected annually from 1991 until 2023. In this research study we have used Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, and structural break unit root break test. The unit root tests with structural breaks indicate that for Bhutan, China, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, the null hypothesis of a unit root cannot be rejected at the 5% significance level, regardless of the model used (IO or AO). This means that the actual price levels for these countries follow a non-stationary trend and PPP is not proved true. But in case of Bangladesh, the AO model disposes off null hypothesis therefore suggesting stationarity and supporting PPP. While for India, both models eliminate null hypothesis which confirms stationarity and thus supports PPP within the sampled period.
Tapping into Economic Opportunities: Economic Renaissance through Tourism in AJK
Tourism is a crucial factor in economic development, especially in areas with strong cultural traditions and scenic beauty. Situated in the foothills of the Himalayas, Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) has a great deal of unexplored potential for tourism growth. In addition to outlining sound tactics for developing a vibrant tourist and hospitality industry, this study seeks to assess tourism’s economic influence in AJK. This dissertation weighs the economic assistance of tourism in AJK over the span of three years. The study employs a Triangulation approach e. This particular study was designed through the use of surveys, official reports, and academic literature. The study highlights the economic benefits of tourism in AJK, including the establishment of infrastructure and opening the way for SMEs (Small and medium enterprises). However, the hurdles faced by AJK are scarce marketing, geopolitical instability, and environmental issues that hamper its realization. This study also uncovers the ground realities of tourist destinations. The results suggest proactive interventions regarding investment policies, sustainable environmental management, and upgrading the skills to crack tourism potential and promote economic development. This study also analyzes that the implementation of capital-intensive projects can bolster the tourism infrastructure and emphasize the sophisticated econometric modeling techniques to analyze tourist preferences and spending patterns, thereby informing the design and implementation of targeted marketing strategies. This approach involves deploying predictive analytics algorithms to segment tourist markets based on socio-economic factors, which can be used for developing evidence-based policies for tourism's transformative capacity as a catalyst for equitable economic growth in the region.
Impact of Agriculture Technology Adoption on Productivity and Efficiency: Primary Panel Data Analysis
Agricultural technologies have been promoted by the government to increase productivity and efficiency. However, adoption of new technology is very low because of lack of knowledge and awareness. The study estimates the impact of agriculture technology adoption on productivity and efficiency. The current study uses primary panel data of base year (2006-07) and end year (2018-19). Further, it has also explored the socioeconomic indicators responsible for productivity and efficiency in the area. A propensity score matching approach has been used to identify the factors responsible for productivity and efficiency. The ordinary least square (OLS) and frontier production functions are used to estimate parameters of agriculture technologies. The seven technologies have significant impact on various levels and positively affect productivity in the area. The positive factors influencing efficiency are farmers age, education of farmer and farmer operational area while during 2018-19, the factors increase technical efficiency are family size, household family member employment, livestock ownership and operational area respectively. The study recommends some policy implementation that improves the technological adoption to increase productivity and efficiency in the region.
Investigating Pakistan’s Debt Sustainability and Debt Management: An Econometric Analysis
As an indebted country, Pakistan has observed the substantial and persistent increase in its debt burden over the years. This study aims to empirically investigate the impact of public and external debt on the primary balance, while emphasizing the need to break the cycle of reliance on the foreign aid and external borrowing. Using annual data from 1973 to 2022, the study employs breakeven unit root test to identify the potential structural shocks and applies the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimation technique to ensure robust empirical findings. Regression results reveal that public debt negatively and significantly affects the primary balance, whereas external debt has an insignificant impact. Debt sustainability analysis suggests that Pakistan has experienced the unsustainable debt management throughout. However, decades 1973–1982 and 1993– 2002 demonstrate partial fulfillment of debt stabilization conditions, with the primary balances remaining non-negative, though necessary condition was not consistently met. Graphical analysis further reveals the lack of persistent debt sustainability in the presence of primary deficits. This study recommends that to achieve the sustainable debt levels, policymakers must focus on the economic diversification, export promotion, fiscal responsibility, and transparent governance. Complementary strategies, including risk management, targeted subsidies, and the international cooperation, are essential for fostering the long-term financial independence.
An Empirical Investigation of External Debt, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan
The current analysis focuses on how external debt and domestic investment affect economic growth by employing annual data for Pakistan from 1973 to 2022. The study also revisits the “Debt Overhang” effect in Pakistan. Data for all variables have been extracted from World Development Indicators (WDI), International Financial Statistics (IFS) and Pakistan Economic Survey (various issues). The ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributive Lag) Technique developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) has been used for estimation after checking the stationarity of data using the ADF and PP unit root tests developed by Phillips and Perron (1988) to prevent spurious results. Results indicate that external debt has an unfavorable and statistically significant impact on economic growth confirming the presence of the “Debt Overhang” effect. Domestic investment affects economic growth positively and this relation is statistically significant. Exports of goods and services affect positively whereas the population is negatively related to economic growth. It is suggested that the government should use foreign debt for productive purposes and investments in the real segment of the economy like manufacturing, infrastructure, agriculture etc. should be prioritized by the government.
Copyright (c) 2024 Kashmir Economic Review https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
The Impact of CSR on Firm Performance: Exploring the Moderating Effect of Earnings Management
This study checks the CSR impact on the financial performance of the financial sector in the moderator effect of earning management. The public and financial sector companies active in CSR have invested most of their capital in the financial industry. A sample of fifty financial firms from the banking, insurance, and mudaraba sectors that are listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange from the period 2010 to 2023 was used in this study. Correlation and panel regression analysis were employed for the study. CSR has a positive but insignificant impact on the market's financial performance. Earning management has a negative association with accounting measures of financial performance, while earning management has a positive association with market-based measures of financial performance. Earning management is related to accounting measures, whereas market-basis measures depend on investors' perceptions. Hausman-test results of the model show a positive but insignificant impact of CSR on the financial performance of the financial sector in moderating the role of earning management. The findings of this study highlight the importance of CSR because CSR has a positive association with the long-term financial performance of firms. The bulk of cash in the financial industry has come from public and financial sector enterprises engaged in corporate social responsibility.
Harvesting Resilience: Safeguarding Pakistan's Food Future Amidst Climate Challenges
As an integral part of Pakistan's agrarian economy, the agricultural sector is vital to the country's overall economic health. The country's strategic position and reliance on natural resources make it extremely susceptible to the negative consequences of climate change. Punjab Province produces over 80% of Pakistan's wheat and has over 90% of its farmers grow wheat. Researchers used to focus on average temperature and rainfall in the study area. However, this study incorporated new variables including CO2's direct impact on crop growth, average temperature, and urbanization. This study examined how climate change affects Pakistani food security using 1990–2021 time-series data. The primary objective of this study is to shed light on the interconnected nature of climate change and Pakistan's agricultural sector for the benefit of scholars, policymakers, and those with an interest in the subject. To evaluate the long-term and short-term connections between climate change and agricultural productivity, this study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which takes into consideration non-stationarity and endogeneity. Data The study's results point to climate change having a major negative effect on Pakistan's agricultural output. According to the extended analysis, the agricultural industry is seeing a continuous decrease because of climate change. The results highlight how critical it is to act quickly to help the agriculture industry adapt to and lessen the impact of climate change. Agricultural initiatives for climate resilience include research on heat-tolerant crop varieties, water management, sustainable farming, renewable energy adoption, carbon pricing, economic diversification, climate-resilient agriculture, improved irrigation systems, trade access, and rural development support.
Managing External Debt For Sustainable Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia Region
The burden of foreign debt is a recurrent phenomenon in the fiscal landscape of economies, and it is a key challenge that developing nations frequently face. Every economy uses external debt as a source of finance for capital formation. Previous studies on the relationship between economic growth and external debt lack a nuanced examination of the diverse economic structures and policy frameworks but contribution of current study is focused on the economic structures and policy frameworks, across South Asia Regions. The primary goal of this research is to examine the effect of foreign debt on economic growth. To identify connections between variables, this study utilized a fixed-effect regression model. The predicted variable of this study is economic growth while the predictor variables are external debt, inflation, gross national expenditure, and population growth rate. This study collected data from the world development indicators for the South Asia Region from 1990 to 2019. Ricardo's public debt theory and the debt overhang theory serve as theoretical frameworks for investigating the influence of foreign debt on economic growth. The diagnostic test showed the problem of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the estimated model, therefore, robust estimation is carried out. The government should transparently manage the entire loan phase, including project identification, evaluation permits, and loan negotiations and contracting loan distribution, completion of the project monitoring and assessment, and repayment of loans. The government ought to develop a framework of credible policies to foster an environment that will promote confidence among investors, both domestic and foreign, to make investments in the nation.
The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Headline and Core Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
The study at hands analyzes the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation in Pakistan. We have evaluated data spanning from 1980 to 2020. For empirical analysis, we have classified inflation into two categories; “Headline inflation” and “Core inflation” and the results are examined for both long run and short run time horizon. Our study utilizes total debt service, trade openness as representative of fiscal while money supply, exchange rate and remittance inflows as indicators of monetary policy. The empirical findings suggest that government debt service and money supply, both are affecting headline inflation in the long run. Nevertheless, monetary policy can be claimed to be relatively more successful determinant of long term headline inflation as compared to fiscal policy, as per determined coefficients of significant variables. The exchange rate, on the other hand, significantly influences headline inflation in the short run. The long and short run relative effectiveness of monetary policy is also evident as per our findings in terms of core inflation. The Money supply and remittance inflow emerge as statistically significant representatives of monetary policy influencing core inflation, The overall findings suggests monetary policy to be relatively more effective in terms of its impact on both Headline and Core Inflation in Pakistan.
A Modified Approach to Measuring Monetary Policy for Unstable Economies
Most of the empirical studies on measuring the effects of monetary policy find positive relationship between interest rate and inflation rate at least in the short run. These studies make use of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with small number of variables and then using appropriate identifying restrictions, impulse response functions are estimated. We state, in this paper, that such methodology is inappropriate for unstable economies that are more prone to frequent external and domestic shocks. We hypothesize that positive relationship between interest rate and inflation rate is found due to incomplete capture of endogenous response of monetary policy to changes in inflation rate as variation in the latter is dominated by the effects of shocks. To test this hypothesis, we construct three variables VAR model for Pakistan’s economy and data on inflation rate, output and interest rate are taken for the period 2000M01 to 2019M06. We adjust inflation rate for common component of macroeconomic variables, measured as factor score from a group of eight macroeconomic variables; the adjusted inflation rate does not carry information of large shocks that are reflected in almost all of the macroeconomic variables. We find support for our hypothesis as there is negative response of inflation rate to changes in interest rate. This result is robust to different specifications of VAR model and different sets of identifying restrictions to recover structural shocks. Results also reveal that changes in interest rate influence the future path of adjusted inflation rate whereas path of inflation rate – that is correlated with factor score – is pre-dominantly determined by changes in output. Moreover, we find that interest rate Granger causes both components of inflation rate but not the aggregate inflation rate. On the basis of our findings, we support tight stance of monetary policy whenever inflation rate is above acceptable level but cautious response of policy is required in highly and domestically indebted countries and distributional consequences may also be considered before any policy decision.
Does Social Capital Surge between Religiosity and Subjective Well-being?
The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between religiosity, social capital, and the subjective well-being of individuals in Pakistan. Subjective well-being is observed in three aspects: self-reported health, happiness, and life satisfaction. The analysis is performed on data taken from the seventh wave of the World Value Survey (WVS-7). Using Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) the results reveal that religion and social capital contribute to an individual’s wellbeing. Subjective well-being increases for those who are more active in religious associations. Social Capital has a significant positive impact on subjective well-being. Other factors such as health status, income, marital status, and education also have an influence on the well-being of individuals in Pakistan.
Copyright (c) 2023 Kashmir Economic Review https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Young or Experienced Female Workers: Who Faces More Gender Wage Discrimination in Pakistan?
The objective of the study was to investigate gender earning gap at the different stages of career in Urban, Rural and Overall Pakistan. By using Blinder (1973) and Oaxaca (1973) methodology, study found that age, marital status, employment status andeducation has significant impact on the earnings. Decomposition results suggest that age has greater impact on earnings for experienced earners in urban labor market and young earners in rural labor market. Marriage has higher impact on the earnings in the urban and rural labor market for young earners. The young female workers face more discrimination in wages in urban, rural and overall Pakistan. Moreover, among young female earners, relatively higher discrimination is faced by those who work in urban areas than those in who work in rural areas. Whereas, experienced female earners face more discrimination in the rural areas. Strong measures by the government are required to reduce discrimination against women in urban, rural and overall Pakistan to make labor market more inclusive.
Deficit Spending, Inflation & Output Growth: Does Source of Spending Matter?
A government’s choice of a source for ‘deficit financing’ has both economic and political consequences. In recent decades, academics and policymakers have leaned more in favor of bond financing as opposed to monetization. The reasons for this shift, in the latter, range from being politically motivated and inflationary to counter-productive, while the former, as a market-based solution to fiscal discipline and stability. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether different sources of finance for the government’s deficit spending have any bearing on the macroeconomic outcomes i.e., inflation and output growth in the case of Pakistan. A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is built with key economic variables, to calculate impulse responses to monetized and bond-financed deficit spending. The evidence shows that, although both monetized and bond-financed deficit spending have inflationary consequences, they improve output growth. Moreover, to fund the government’s deficit spending, picking either monetization or bond financing over the other does not provide substantial benefits in terms of macroeconomic outcomes. The robustness of these results is substantiated by the evidence from the QQ approach as well.
Banks Soundness in Pakistan: SEM-PLS Approach
The research is conducted to test the soundness of 20 listed Pakistani banks post-crisis (2009-2018). The banks included Islamic, private, and publicly-owned banks. PLS-SEM technique was applied on CAMELS with 42 indicators, and the most significant parameter for Banks' soundness was identified. Stock Returns were taken as the dependent variable and direct indicator for Bank's soundness. Outcomes showed that Earning parameter contributed most significantly to Banks' soundness in Pakistan. Other parameters like management, capital, and liquidity were also significant, but results showed that banks are executing with a lower capital base and less liquidity, and management also needs improvement. The sensitivity parameter showed no relevance to banks' soundness in Pakistan. Overall, the Pakistani banking industry is sound, and worldwide banking crises affect Pakistani banks considerably.
Exploring the Historical Development of Kashmiri Shawl Industry and Future Prospects of the Industry
Throughout history, the shawl industry has been one of the most important industries in Jammu and Kashmir. It is not only culturally significant but has also been a major source of exports and employment. It is well-established and recognized that the shawl industry is declining, which has aggravated in recent years. This study aimed to explore the importance of foreign trade for the development of the shawl industry, the reasons behind the decline, and its future prospect. For this study, to understand the prospects of the industry, exports data from 1995- 2017 was forecasted using ARIMA for the next 10 years. Using trade statistics, the present study has demonstrated that foreign trade has historically played a vital role in the development of the shawl industry, and its decline is rooted in the conflict and low investment spiral, which decreases its productivity and hence its competitiveness. Moreover, the study has also shown that the industry's prospects are negative, as shown by the point forecast decline. Future studies are needed to explore the relationship between the growth of the shawl industry and NSDP or employment rate in Kashmir, which can provide key insights for understanding the economy of Kashmir.
Determinants of Health-Seeking Behaviour in Pakistan
Considering the low performance of Pakistan on health indices in the region, its fast-growing population, and higher poverty levels, this study aims to highlight the practical relevance of Grossman’s health investment model by analyzing the health demand in Pakistan. To avoid the problem of endogeneity due to the interdependence of health capital and demand for medical care, we used the binary dependent variable. Logistic regression is employed to estimate the empirical model using microdata from Pakistan’s Social & Household Integrated Economic Survey (2018-19). Results indicate that individuals with better income, education, and social respect demand more healthcare as they value a healthy lifetime high. Due to the higher cumulative risk of illness, females’ health demand is higher than males. While individuals engaging in sports and recreational activities care about their anticipated future health outcomes and hence demand more healthcare. Finally, the regional control variables show that people seek fewer healthcare services in rural areas and Balochistan province due to financial constraints, lack of healthcare facilities, and transport issues.
Modeling Volatility Spillover and Role of Volatility Spillover Effect to Improve Forecasting Performance of GARCH Models Based on Varying Distributions
The presented study endeavor to examine whether financial returns’ volatility spillover effect imparts a role to improve the forecasting accuracy of GARCH family models based on various error distributions. An empirical investigation is conducted by employing standard GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR-GARCH models. Three error distributions, normal, Student t, and General Error Distribution are used in the analysis. Daily data spanning from August 4, 1997, to April 28, 2022, has been analyzed. The strength of the study lies in utilizing the volatility spillover effect along with none normal error distributions to improve the forecasting accuracy of three GARCH family models for stock and currency markets’ returns, in the context of Pakistan. In-sample estimation results from all three models validate the existence of significant volatility spillover among the stock and currency markets of Pakistan. Whereas, out-sample forecasting results provide evidence regarding accuracy gain from the perspective of stock and currency markets’ returns forecasting. Along with the volatility spillover effect, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models based on Students t and GED distributions provide better forecasts for stock market and currency market returns. The results of the study hold promise for practical significance for asset allocation and financial risk management applications.
Contemporary Non-Tariff Measures Under the WTO Regime: Case of Pakistan Export to European Countries
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) initiated a uniform set of non-tariff measures in 1995, which are now considered as emerging barriers in world trade patterns. The non-tariff measures impede the export of WTO member states. The WTO has asked its members to limit tariff rates. Hence, members have left with only option to levy non-tariff barriers to transform exports. This article's main objective is to examine the effects of non-tariff measures on export of Pakistan to European countries from 1995 to 2018. Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Zero-inflated PPML (ZI-PPML) estimation methods are deployed to address zero-export in many years and over-dispersion data of export to specified countries, based on the gravity model. The findings show that the GDP of Pakistan and European nations, tariff, distance, and Non-tariff Measures (NTMs) are core determinants, while in some cases, NTMs initiated are export restrictive. In this perspective, tariff, and non-tariff measures are utilized to administer Pakistan's export to the subject region. Similar to the developed countries, Pakistan should also address non-tariff barriers effectively for favourable trade flows.
Banks Efficiency Analyses in Dual Banking System
The share of Islamic banks is growing in the banking sector steadily. An increasing number of conventional banks are introducing Islamic banking services. We estimate the efficiencies of banks by applying Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and for bias correction, we apply the double bootstrap method. In the second stage, determinants of efficiency are analyzed. Annual data from the reports of the banks is employed for the analysis Conventional banks providing Islamic banking services are found to be performing better in terms of technical efficiency than pure Islamic and pure conventional banks. In the financial crisis period, there is no evidence of a difference in the performance of banks across all groups.
Federal Tax Revenue Forecasting of Pakistan: Alternative Approaches
This study is an appraisal of FBR's existing tax revenue forecasting technique, i.e., the buoyancy approach. It compares the effectiveness of the buoyancy approach and alternative forecasting methods. Using 1984-85 to 2018-19 annual data, predictions are made using different theoretical, statistical, and machine learning methods. The root mean square error (RMSE) suggests that the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and Elastic Net approaches provide better forecasts for total tax and federal excise duty. The Box Jenkins methodology provides the most accurate direct and sales tax estimates, while custom duties are best predicted through the Vector Autoregressive model. On the other hand, mean absolute error (MAE) recommends Marginal Tax Rate (MTR) to forecast all federal taxes of Pakistan. In comparison, the buoyancy approach predictions are not accurate for any of the federal taxes.
Evaluation of Energy Cleanability Gap and its Impact on Sustainable Economic Development
The transition from traditional to sustainable energy is nothing without easy access to clean energy. Therefore, different economies have made smooth transitions, but still, there is a gap in energy cleanability. Here, this study adopted two stage-analyses; initially, it presents an overlook of energy cleanability transition by applying Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) with entropy weightage in low-middle & upper middle-income countries. The fallout of TOPSIS discloses the outcomes and finds more divergence trends in lower-middle-income countries. Furthermore, the current study examined the impact of the energy cleanability gap on economic development in selected panels from 2000 to 2019. Then, unclean energy is to blame for the declining trend in economic development. Furthermore, sustainability in the energy transition is more required as it has its costs and benefits and needs more government commitment and regulatory changes. So, avoiding such vulnerabilities requires massive financing to tackle them and improve flexibility in economic development.
Impact of Energy Price on Technological Innovation through the channel of Human capital: The Case of Developed and Developing Economies
This Study investigated the moderating role of human capital in the relationship between energy price and technological innovation for 81 developed and developing countries from the period 1990-2019. For empirical investigation, we have employed fixed effect, random effect, and generalized method of moments (GMM). This study analyzed the conditional effect of energy price on technological innovation at different levels of human capital. According to findings, both developed and developing countries experience an increase in technological innovation when energy prices are high. The moderating role of human capital, confirms that energy price and human capital are substitutes in explaining the relationship with technological innovation. It is proposed for policy implications that financial support is required to increase technological innovation because it is an expensive investment to pursue. Furthermore, to build the absorptive capacity of the country, which in turn increases factor productivity, nations need to develop their human capital.
Probing the Nexus Between Innovative Work Behavior and Religious Belief: One Belt and One Road Perspective
The study aims to analyze the impact of organizational justice on innovative work behavior in the services sector. It capitalizes on the role of perceived organizational support as moderator and Muslim religious belief in three-way moderation. One of the principal objectives of the study is to find whether perceived organizational support and Muslim religious belief combined foster innovativeness. This study surveys 582 respondents randomly and utilizes PROCESS macro in SPSS to test hypotheses. The study reveals that perceived organizational support and Muslim religious belief distinctively play a vital role in the relation between organizational justice and innovative work behavior. The study concludes by presenting managerial and economic implications and paves for further research on various promising areas.
Power of Social Media: Journey of Females Towards Entrepreneurship
Treading on a business venture as an entrepreneur is a daunting task in a developing economy like Pakistan, especially if you do not belong to the globally dominant gender in the markets. Social media is encouraging people to try their luck with entrepreneurship as self-employed, be it a micro-entrepreneur or a partnership having limited investment. The study aims to explore the nature of home-based female-owned online businesses and to identify areas where the government can play a role in facilitating and encouraging online female entrepreneurs. The study employed a qualitative research design, in the locale of the capital, Islamabad. Structured interviews were conducted with 18 female entrepreneurs running home-based online businesses. Thematic analysis was used to reach the results. Social media is effectively playing its role in transforming the lives of females since Covid-19 hit the world. Such type of business requires the least level of education and investment, creating ease of doing business by providing a free-of-cost platform to become an entrepreneur without requiring to leave the house for the sake of business. Moreover, half of the sample resented the negative impact of government decisions on their business operations and identified the need for an online fraud filing portal and other facilitations.
Trade Liberalization Policy Effect on Inequality and Poverty: A Developing Economy Case in Point
This study has employed Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) 2010-11 for the economy of Pakistan designed by Dorosh et al. (2015) to analyze the effects of trade liberalization on income inequality and poverty. Two experiments have been conducted to investigate the effects using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. By applying a restricted trade policy (50% tariff) and free trade policy (0% tariff), the results have been concluded, which depicts that overall, the trade liberalization policy has positive effects on the economy of Pakistan. Exports, Household income, Consumption, and GDP have increasing trends. The simulations have a minor effect on income inequality. Poverty reduction has also been noticed. Consumption of a few commodities has declining trends. Fluctuations in savings, decrease in investment, and increase in imports are the defects of the trade liberalization policy. In the case of developing countries like Pakistan, this policy strongly affects the achieving reduction in income inequality as well as reducing poverty along with desired capital formation and remittances from abroad for economic growth in the long run.
Assessing the technical efficiency of small farmers cultivating wheat in Punjab, Pakistan: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA)
Agriculture is an important sector in developing countries since it employs the bulk of the people and contributes significantly to GDP. Wheat is an important crop for both money and food. Land utilization, productivity, and efficiency all play a role in increasing agricultural output. The data was obtained from Punjab Economic Research Institute (PERI), Lahore. The dataset used in this research encompasses 419 small-scale wheat farmers from 2018-19 and offers comprehensive information regarding production costs and input utilization for the wheat crop. The SFA analysis yielded an average technical efficiency (TE) estimate of 84%. The findings suggest that TE can be increased by 16 percent without altering the level of inputs utilized. Keywords: Technical efficiency, Stochastic frontier analysis, PERI.
Relationship between Housing Price Index and Consumer Price Index in Saudi Economy: A Vector Autoregression Approach
This is a pioneering attempt to examine the existence of the causal relationship between the housing price index (HPI) and the consumer price index (CPI), in Saudi Arabia. Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach has been used to analyze the data during the period 2013:1-2022:2. Granger Causality tests, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse response functions have also been employed to explore the nature of that relationship. The VAR estimates reveal that the CPI has an inverse relationship with the HPI in the first three lags out of five lags. The analysis of variance and response functions shows that CPI has a high explanatory power over changes in HPI (more than 48%), especially in the short run compared to the long run. The causal tests of Granger show that CPI does Granger cause housing prices index (HPI), and consequently, it suggests that inflation can serve as a precursor to future housing prices. The paper emphasizes the importance of future studies and research in this field.
Agriculture Technology Adoption Determinants: Panel Data Analysis
The agriculture sector of Pakistan has a key role in the economy because it has a major share in the country’s GDP. Faisalabad district has also an important role in the agriculture sector and most traditional methods are used in the district. The new and improved methods are being introduced in the province. The current study investigates the sources and determinants of improved agriculture technologies in the district by using primary panel (2006-07 & 2018-19). The logistic approach is used to determine influencing factors in both periods separately with marginal effects. The major factors responsible for agriculture technology adoption are the age of the farmer's head, family size, farmer education, higher education of family members, household member employment, livestock ownership, number of visits to agriculture extension officers, and media access.
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Consumption Pattern of Male and Female Headed Households: Evidence for Pakistan
This paper aims to investigate the consumption patterns of male and female-headed households in Pakistan. According to the findings, both types of households spend about half of their total expenditure on food and drinks. Furthermore, compared to their male counterparts, female-headed households spend a higher percentage of their income on education and healthcare. On the other hand, male-headed households spend a larger share of their expenditure on food and drinks and entertainment than femaleheaded households. The budget shares for food and drinks, fuel and lightning, and clothing and footwear decline, while that of education, durables, healthcare, and entertainment rise with the increase in total expenditures in case of both types of households. The aged heads are found to be more diet and health-conscious; and thereby, with the increase in age, the expenditures on food and drinks, healthcare and education increase. Results also reveal that with the increase in the dependency ratio, the budget share increases more on food items than non-food items. Finally, with a higher level of education, the budget shares of education, entertainment, durables, healthcare, and fuel and lightning increase.
Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Terms of Trade and Current Account Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
Since the early 1980s, the intertemporal approach to the current account (ICA) has acquired much attention and has become a standard instrument for determining the current account situation. The current study analyzes the ICA’s consistency and relevance for Pakistan. To achieve this goal, we employ the present value model of the current account for the period 1960 to 2016. The empirical findings highlight the statistical consistency of the prediction of the intertemporal model in Pakistan. Furthermore, when supplemented with external sector variables such as the stochastic global interest rate, real exchange rate, and terms of trade, the present value model does a reasonable job of illuminating Pakistan’s historical current account movements.
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Nexus Between Unemployment and the Size of the Informal Economy in the Case of Pakistan and its Comparison with the Subcontinent
Despite the government's efforts to reduce the shadow economy in Pakistan to raise revenue, workers' involvement in the shadow economy continues to rise, explained via the labour force participation in the shadow economy. The debate regarding the estimation of the shadow economy and its relation to unemployment is highly celebrated in literature. It is not hard to find a few studies while taking Pakistan a particular case that explains the relationship between Unemployment and the size of the Informal Economy, but no study channelizes properly how and through which channels unemployment affects the size of the informal sector. Additionally, this study contributes to filling this void by demonstrating how unemployment is linked to the size of the shadow economy and how unemployment fuels the informal economy's growth in Pakistan. Further, it provides possible economic consequences for public policy decisions. The study posits that changes in the unemployment rate positively contribute to the size of the shadow economy. Due to the unavailability of legal opportunities, workers who work in the shadow economy continue to stay, while other unemployed labor force also tends to participate in informal economic activities.
Impact of Macroeconomic Instability on Private Investment: Evidence from Pakistan
This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic instability on private investment. Contrary to the existing studies about Pakistan, which use a single variable as a proxy for macroeconomic instability, we contributed by constructing a Macroeconomic Instability Index (MII) consisting of six variables. The study uses time-series data from 1976 to 2013 and applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique. The empirical findings show an inverse relationship between macroeconomic instability and private investment. This warrants that policymakers should minimize macroeconomic instability as for as possible.
Does Exchange Rate Volatility Matter for the Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Composition of Capital?
This paper aims to investigate the impact of financial liberalization on the composition of capital through the channel of exchange rate volatility. It uses the panel data of 105 developed and developing countries for 1976-2017 and employs the seemingly unrelated regression method for unbalanced panel data developed by Biorn (2004). The paper concludes that both de jure and de facto measures of financial liberalization have a significant direct positive impact on the composition of capital. In contrast, the indirect effect through exchange rate volatility hampers the quality of capital. However, the net effect confirms that the overall impact of financial liberalization on the composition of capital through exchange rate volatility improves the quality of capital stock because of the catalyst role of financial liberalization, as it absorbs the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility. These findings will help policymakers formulate policies to stabilize the exchange rate market after financial liberalization to promote investment, improve capital quality, and economic prosperity.
The Impact of Division-Level Production Outcomes upon Punjab Aggregate Wheat Production: An Application of Correlated Component Regression Approach
This study analyzes the relative importance of division-level production outcomes in predicting the Punjab outcome for wheat crops using the annual time-series data from 1982 to 2020. A newly developed regression analytic approach, called correlated component regression (CCR), was applied to overcome suppression effects and multicollinearity data problems. Standardized regression coefficients have been used to determine the relative importance of each division. Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) was applied to measure the geographic concentration of the division-level impacts. The empirical analysis was applied at two time periods in which the first period includes the crop years from 1987 to 2003 and the second period covers 2004 to 2020 crop years. The regression results provide an HHI value of 1175 during 1987-2003 and 1351 during 2004-2020. A smaller value of HHI during the period 1987-2003 suggests that the technological change along with high-yield varieties, use of fertilizers, and pesticides have led to a greater concentration for wheat in this period, and the opposite was true for the 2004-2020-time period.
Effect of Foreign Assistance on the Economic Growth of Recipient Countries of Asia
This study examines how foreign aid affects the economic growth of developing countries in Asia. The data is collected from 1984 to 2013 from nine developing Asian countries. It is experienced that foreign aid and its influence on economic growth demonstrate significant ambiguity about the sign and magnitude. This study accentuated the policy role and the role of political stability for foreign assistance on countries' economic growth. This work establishes foreign aid contributes to growth through good governance, employing ?xed effect in a static-panel context. It also supports the evidence of a negative relationship between foreign aid and economic growth. The ?nding suggest noticeably that foreign aid is growth-enhancing if there is a better policy situation along with political stability.
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An Analysis of Women Employment Status in Household Decision Making: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
The study aims at empirically examining the role of women's employment status towards their capability in household decision-making. Generally, it is believed that employment status creates a sense of empowerment and allows women to be more proactive and influential in their household affairs. The study objectively explores this aspect through a survey of employed and unemployed women from Punjab province (Pakistan). A multidimensional index has been constructed to evaluate women's involvement in household decision-making. Utilizing a “Generalized Ordinal Logit Model”, the study finds that employed women hold a dominant position in their household decision making as compared to their unemployed counterparts. The proportional odd of higher participation in household decisions is found significantly higher in employed women as compared to unemployed women. Additionally, the study proclaims the income level of employed women, their marital status, their education, and the educational level of their fathers as significant in the deterministic framework of women's household participation.
Household Catastrophic Health Expenditures and its Determinants in Pakistan
Pakistan being a lower-middle-income country, is always being able to allocate less than or around 2% of GDP to health due to which Out-of-Pocket payments have a very large share in Pakistan’s total health financing. Hence, when this OOP health expenditure exceeds a defined threshold of the Household’s Non-food consumption expenditure then the Household faces financial catastrophe. This research sheds light on the features that can make households in Pakistan more vulnerable to catastrophic health expenses and fills the gap by analyzing the determinants of Catastrophic health expenditures of Pakistan and discusses the incidence and intensity of these Catastrophic health expenditures. We have used survey data of Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) of Pakistan for the year 2015-2016 for 24238 households. It contains household information including education, income, consumption expenditure, and health expenditures. As anticipated, some determining factors significantly increase the risk of facing catastrophic health expenditures.
Regional Earning Differentials in Pakistan: Does Age Makes a Difference?
To investigate regional earning differentials in Pakistan, Data has been taken from Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement. Analysis has been carried out for all, young and old earners. Earning differences are decomposed by using the Oaxaca decomposition technique. Results indicate that old earners face less discrimination as compared to young earners in rural areas. Income differences of 31.6% for all earners, 34.6% for young earners, and 21.5% for old earners are due to regional (urban and rural) factors, which indicates discrimination towards rural workers. Overall, urban workers earn 27% more than rural workers. The impact of education on earnings is higher for urban workers than for rural workers in the case of all earners. The impact of the relatively lower level of education on wages is more in rural areas than in urban areas for young earners. As young earners receive higher education i.e. above graduation, the impact of education is more on earnings if worker resides in an urban area. Furthermore, the impact of the lowest level of education on the earning of workers is more in rural areas than in urban areas for old earners, but as education increases impact is stronger for old earners in urban areas. Based on the results, few policy implications have been discussed.
Monetary Policy Shock and Inflation Persistence: The Case Study of Pakistan
Inflation persistence has been a major stress for economies during the past few decades. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and the persistence of inflation has broadly attracted the attention of economists all over the world. Inflation persistence shows the degree to which future values of inflation are associated with bygone shocks or, in other words, the speed of adjustment toward its long-run value. Indeed, inflation dynamics and the degree of inflation persistence have been recognized as the most essential parameters for affecting monetary policy’s performance. This study estimates the degree of inflation persistence and other macro-economic variables (under a multivariate Approach). Secondly, this study allows the long memory property of inflation persistence to examine the effect of monetary policy shocks on Pakistan’s economy. Knowing the degree of inflation, offers vital information, to the central bank, about how to manage the interest rate to attain the targeted rate of inflation. The study employed Structural Fractional Integrated Vector Auto-regressive Model for the monthly data of 2004:07-2019:12. The parametric method is used for the estimation of fractional integration parameters. The result of the study suggests that there is a high but mean-reverting behavior of inflation persistence in Pakistan. Its means that monetary policy shock will affect inflation for a longer period and dissipate slower than it is under the assumption of stationarity. The results show the positive and significant impact of monetary policy shocks on inflation persistence.
Regional integration and services exports: A comparative analysis of growth, performance, and competitive advantage for ECO region
This study intends to perform the comparative analysis of growth, performance, and competitive advantage of services exports of Pakistan regarding ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) countries. There hardly exists any such study. To examine the growth and performance of services exports in ECO countries this study relies on descriptive statistics while the competitive advantage of Pakistan regarding other ECO countries is analyzed using well recognized Balassa index. Results of the study show that although the share of ECO in world services exports is comparatively small than other regional trading blocs however, it is consistently on the rise. And Balassa’s index shows that Pakistan has managed to maintain and develop exports of royalties and license fees services and computer and information services over the years. To exploit its RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) in computer and information services, this study suggests Pakistan should spend on the education and training of its youth to enhance its human capital.
Money Demand Function in Ghana: Does Stock Prices Matter?
This study aims to investigate the impact of stock prices on money demand in Ghana. Quarterly data is utilized between 1999Q:1 and 2017Q:4, where the broad monetary aggregate (M2) is the dependent variable and the independent variables included real income, short-term interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and real stock prices. The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and bounds cointegration techniques. The bounds test outcome indicated the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between M2, real income, short-term interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and real stock prices. The results show that real income and real stock prices affect real M2 demand positively and significantly in both the short-run and long-run. Hence, the wealth effect is dominant for the Ghanaian economy. Further, the study recorded a negative influence of short-term interest rate and real effective exchange rate on M2 demand but only the former affects M2 demand significantly in the short-run and long-run. The important policy implication derived from the results is that, if the Bank of Ghana can prevent downturns and volatility of the stock market, a sound monetary targeting could be achieved.
Investigating the Impact of Fiscal Decentralisation on Health Sector: A Case of Pakistan
An important determinant of improved quality of life is the health sector. Pakistan, being a developing country, lags on various health indicators and therefore, this study discusses the health sector in Pakistan. As the health sector is a devolved subject, therefore, the study explores the impact of fiscal decentralization on important health sector indicators. National data ranging from 1974-2009 was used to analyse the important health indicators in Pakistan. Analysis indicates that the health sector remained neglected over the period. To a surprise, a negative long-run cointegrating relationship was found for federal transfers on health expenditures at the national level. Hence, provincial autonomy during the period of analysis could not bring the desired improvement in the health sector. Nevertheless, the study highlights that federal transfers to provinces do have social implications.
A Time Series Analysis of Financial Sector Development of Pakistan
This article empirically investigates the contributing factors of Pakistan's financial sector by using time series data from 1973 to 2019. Several studies discuss the role of financial development in explaining economic activities, but the literature on the determinants of financial sector development is an infant in Pakistan. This study is an attempt in this way. Therefore, we allow structural breaks endogenously to avoid spurious relationships among the variables. Notably, we use unit root tests which allow multiple breaks. This test confirms that some of the data series have different levels of integration. We find that trade openness, capital account liberalization, investment, GDP per capita, and remittances are essential variables to make the financial sector a well-functioning system. Inflation, tight monetary policy, and public debt may hurt Pakistan's financial sector.
Modelling Dynamics of Sen’s Capability Dimensions: A New Approach
Sen (1999) introduced dynamics into the capability approach in his book “Development as Freedom”. There has been hardly any work, except for Pugno (2017), on capability dynamics since then. The study of Pugno (2017) is theoretical and does not derive policy implications in terms of freedom, functioning, and conversion efficiency. The lack of empirical work in this area is largely due to the unavailability of panel data at the household or individual level to study dynamics. To solve this problem, we have developed a methodology based on bootstrapping to study the dynamics of data available at a point in time. We then apply this methodology to explore the dynamics of capability dimensions in various policy scenarios using district-level data from the Pakistan Socio-Economic Survey (PSES, 2002). First, we measure sense-of-achievement, sense-of-freedom-toachieve, and sense-of-ability-to-achieve to quantify Sen’s functioning, freedom, and conversion efficiency for the overall functioning of “being achieved”. Most districts (61.4%) are found to fall in the policy region where it is required to focus on freedom with the increasing emphasis on efficiency as functioning increases. It means that freedom provides a precondition for efficiency and functioning in these districts. Further, a comparison of HDI with capability dimensions at various policy focus regions reveals that the level of HDI does not alter the policy focus region. It means that human development has no correspondence with capability dimensions. Hence a separate focus is required to enhance capability dimensions.
Do Corruption and Trade Openness Impede FDI?
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been given much attention in the recent past just because of its contribution to economic development. However, there are several socio-economic factors that impede FDI. Therefore, the objective of current study is to probe whether corruption and trade openness affect FDI. The study uses data from 1990-2015 for SAARC countries and employs panel ARDL model to retrieve short- and long-run results. The findings reveal that corruption plunges the FDI in long-run, while trade openness increases FDI. On the contrary, we report heterogeneous results in short-run. Additionally, we deduce a few policy implications based on the findings of this study.
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Disentangling Horizontal and Vertical Intra industry Trade: Case of Pakistan
This study systematically examines and decomposes Intra Industry trade (IIT) of Pakistan into horizontal Intra industry trade (HIIT), low-quality vertical Intra industry trade (LQVIIT), and high-quality vertical Intra industry trade HQVIIT components using unit value indices. The study also investigates decade wise IIT of Pakistan using GL indices, and the country-specific determinants of Pakistan’s IIT at the 1-digit industry level of SITC. Decomposition and measurement of Pakistan’s IIT show that in the last forty-three years HIIT dominates VIIT, while LQVIIT dominates HQVIIT industries. The empirical analysis of the last decade shows that LQVIIT dominates HIIT as well as HQVIIT, and in the last three decades HIIT, LQVIIT, and HQVIIT show constant, increasing, and decreasing trend, respectively. The empirical analysis of the last two decades shows that IIT of Pakistan is sharply increasing, IIT of Pakistan with major developing trading partners is more than with major developed trading partners. Distance and differences in human capital variables show an insignificant impact on IIT of Pakistan.
International Stock Markets Integration: A Case Study of Selected OIC Countries
This study examines the integration in eight selected emerging stock markets from the OIC countries namely Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Malaysia for the period of March 1998 to March 2016. The study adopts a combination approach by considering the combination of two countries, then a combination of three countries, and so on up to the nth combination of the stock markets using the Autoregressive distributive lag approach. The results show that there is a systematic pattern of long-run equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of selected OIC countries. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Turkey are found to be leading stock markets in the selected group. The results of this study will provide a pattern of beneficial portfolio diversification to investors.
Investors' Imitation Behaviour: A Comparison of Islamic and Conventional Banks Stocks
This study aim is to investigate the existence of herding behavior in the banking sector; conventional banking and Islamic banking sectors. By using daily data, Cross-sectional Standard deviation (CSSD) and Cross-sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) based methods are employed to estimate herding behavior in the aforesaid market. The study finds no evidence of herding behavior for investors in conventional banks as well as for investors in Islamic banks. The study also highlights the non-existence of herding behavior in extreme market conditions for both types of banks.
Can Exchange Rate Depreciation Lead to Increase in Exports of Pakistan? A Time Series Analysis
In this analysis, it is argued that Pakistan had passed through different exchange rate regimes in the last two decades. This study empirically analyses the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Pakistan’s exports. A monthly time series data of Export Volume, Import Volume, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Average Applied Tariff Rates for Pakistan, and major trading partners gross domestic product (GDP) has been taken for 2003-04 to 2018-19. Data for the first six months of 2019-20 has also been included in the analysis, as it was the period that witnessed substantial exchange rate depreciation. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique has been applied to check the time-series impact between Export Volume and Real Effective Exchange Rate and weighted average exchange rate. On co-integrated series, the Error Correction Model (ECM) has been used to find out the long-run and short-run relationships among variables of the same period. The results show that there is a positive, but less significant, impact of currency variations on Pakistan’s exports, however, there is an inverse nevertheless significant impact of applied average tariff rates on Pakistan’s exports. Furthermore, there is a positive correlation between the increase in exports and the weighted GDP of its trading partners (which creates exportable surplus due to industrial growth).
Financial Globalization and Financial Sector Effectiveness: An Index Based Analysis of Pakistan
This paper tried to assess the nature of relationship between financial sector openness and financial sector deepening for Pakistan. The study utilized data set of annual frequency on financial sector openness index, institutional quality index, trade openness and a set of control variables over a period from 1995 to 2018. The application of econometric method of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) confirmed the extensively debated long run association, and after having established this, found the estimates (both short run and long run). Results demonstrated that financial openness and institutional quality improve the quality of financial sector efficiency in Pakistan for short run; however, in the long run financial openness did not lead financial sector development. These findings indicate that policies promote financial sector openness appear to help Pakistan to derive the benefits of quality of financial sector efficiency. Our analysis suggests that there are unavoidable risks associated with financial sector openness. Therefore financial openness is not just an isolated policy goal. Along with institutional quality sounds macroeconomics framework is an essential prerequisite for making sure that financial development is beneficial.
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The Relationship Between Informal Institutions and Well-being: An Empirical Study of Selected Districts of AJK
This paper investigates the relationship between informal institutions and well-being. Most of the literature highlights the impact of formal institutions on well-being but the studies related to informal institutions and well-being are rare. For formal institutions there are well defined rules and regulations with an aim to achieve certain objectives in the society, such as police, judiciary, hospitals and government systems etc. For informal institutions, the rules and regulations are not documented, but have social approval and are well observed in the society. It is assumed that strong formal and informal institutions increase efficiency and productivity of individuals and societies through structured processes and by lowering the transactions cost. For empirical analysis of relationship between informal institutions and well-being, we use primary data, conducted under ?Divine Economics Survey – 2017?. This survey had been conducted in 2017 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and in various cities of Pakistan. The survey has many sections; however, we use the section about institutions and the basic information. In this paper, response variable is well-being and measured by single satisfaction question. Because response variable is discrete in nature and have more than one category, so ordered logit model is used. Empirical result shows a positive and significant effect of informal institutions on wellbeing, while controlling other variables. Findings about other control variables are in line with previous studies.
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The Impact of the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election and Inauguration on the Return of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII)
The purpose of present study is to determine the impact of political events, namely, Election Inauguration for President and Vice President of Republic of Indonesia in 2019 on Abnormal Returns on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Shares. This exploration employs the event study analysis method. The time-period used was 230 bourse days from November 7, 2018 to October 30, 2019, including 7 days before and 7 days after the election‘s inauguration for the President and Vice President of Indonesia in 2019. From two political events, there is an abnormal return that decreases after the event compared to before event occurred, but the decrease is statistically no significant difference.
Impact of Uncertainty on Cash Holding: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms of Pakistan
This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the cash holdings of manufacturing firms of Pakistan. It also explores the impact of uncertainty on cash holdings for financially constrained firms. We employ dividend payout ratio as a proxy for classification of financially constrained firms. In order to mitigate the problem of endogeneity and to take into account the dynamic nature of the panel dataset, we employ the twostep system-GMM using unbalanced panel dataset of 301 firms covering the period of 2001 -2015. The results reveal that cash holdings of firms increase with both macroeconomic and firmspecific uncertainty. However, the increase in cash holding during higher macroeconomic uncertainty is more than that of firm specific uncertainty. The reason behind is that firm specific uncertainty can be hedged while macroeconomic uncertainty cannot be evaded. The results also suggest that financially constrained firms further increase their cash holding while facing both sorts of uncertainty.
Impact of Conservatism and Earnings Management on Earning Quality: Evidence from Pakistani Listed Firms
This study examines whether accounting conservatism (prudence) and earning management are related with improved quality of earnings. Using a sample of 70 non-financial Pakistani listed firms covering a 10 years period from 2008- 2017 with 700 observations. Quality of earning is measured on the basis of Accrual quality measurement as proxy to earning quality indicator. Basu Reverse regression approach is used to measure conservatism (Prudence) and Modified Jones Model is used for Earning Management. The results of the research indicate a significant positive impact of conservatism and earning management on quality of earnings in context of Pakistan. This context will provide a source for shareholders, stakeholders, controlling bodies of firms, regulators and other concerned bodies to make decisions on the financial position of the firm‘s on available financial reports.
Impact of Market Forces on Stock Market in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis
The key objective of the study is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market in Pakistan. A stock market is a place or organization where securities instruments are traded among investors. Every type of risk earning assets such as bonds, equity, shares, securities that are traded is included in the financial market. The selected variables in this study were the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange rate, Cost of Capital, Investment, Money Supply, and Consumer Price Index. The GDP is taken as dependent variables and the impact of all remaining independent variables on GDP. The study used the time series data that covered the period from 1975-2016. This study implies the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to check the stationary of data, and the Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model for the Specification of data. To analyze the long run and short-run association among variables the coefficients of the variables are measured. This study concluded that inflation, interest rate, investment, money supply harm the gross domestic product. The impact of the Exchange rate, Cost of capital, and the Consumer Price Index is positive. The cost of capital is the amount of money that is paid by using loans, funds, and instruments.
Economic Theory of Top One Percent: Blindfolds Created by Economics
Conventional economics theory against poor and works very well for top 1%. Discussion of some central concepts reveals how this theory gives an appearance of objectivity, fairness and equity, but conceals strong bias in favor of the rich. Negative outcomes of this theory are observed at global level particularly during Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2007-08. Frequent empirical failure of economics requires studying the real world issues and actual behavior of human beings. But economists continue to bring arguments and justifications to systematic failures. It highlights their conscious theoretical support to the narratives of top 1% at expense of the bottom 90%. It blindfolds economists towards reality, and let them consider natural human traits of cooperation, generosity and social responsibility as anomalies. On the other hand, Islamic economics defends the cause of bottom 90%. This study briefly illustrates the deceptions of ET1% in some core concepts and its contrast with ET90%. It provides sufficient evidence to recognize the hidden objectives of current economic theory.
Determinants of Child Malnutrition: A Structural Modeling Approach for Pakistan
The study aims to determine the inter consistency between determinant of child malnutrition in Pakistan using structural equation model. For analysis the socio-economic data pertaining to 3476 children under five years of age is taken from Pakistan Demographic and Health survey 2012-13. The determinants of child malnutrition are interrelated and complex. The structural equation model shows that maternal (variables pertaining to mother of child) factors are both directly and indirectly affecting child malnutrition. Maternal factors affects through biological (variables pertaining to child) factors and then biological factors affect malnutrition status of the children. So biological factors are playing a mediating role in child malnutrition outcomes in the present study. Whereas Environmental (variables pertaining to the surrounding conditions in which child lives) factors can affect behavioral (variables pertaining to the quality and type of care child received) factors and then behavior affect child malnutrition outcomes. But environmental factors are not directly affecting child malnutrition
THE EFFECT OF INVESTMENT IN HUMAN RESOURCES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
This study basically examined the effect of investment inhuman resources on economic growth of developing countries. It used a panel dataset comprise of 98 middle and upper middle developing countries over the period 1981-2014. The dataset comprises 12 observations for each country at three year intervals. Analytical technique was the Hasuman test which showed that fixed effect model is appropriate for our research analysis. The results obtained from using fixed effect model were quite interesting. That is, Gross enrolment ratio from primary to tertiary, infant mortality rate , school life expectancy, gross capital formation, consumer price index (at 10 per cent level) and poverty head count ratio showed a significant effect on growth whereas GINI index was insignificant to influence economic growth. The study concludes that gross enrolment ratio, poverty head count ratio and consumer price index has an adverse effect on annual growth rate i.e. they are negatively related. Similarly the study also concludes that infant mortality rate, school life expectancy, gross capital formation and GINI coefficient have positive effect on growth of countries. Thus it is concluded that different variables have different effect on economic growth.
THE IMPACT OF MICROFINANCE TO REDUCE POVERTY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLD: THE STUDY DISTRICT SIALKOT, PUNJAB, PAKISTAN
This study examines the impact of microfinance on poverty alleviation keeping in view the factors that affect the poverty which include to execution of income and expenditure, health and food security, housing infrastructure, education and agriculture. This is a survey based research & primary data is collected for this study through a structured questionnaire that comprising various aspects of microfinance & poverty alleviation. Multistage technique is used for data collection from clients of Akhuwat Trust and Kashf Foundation that is related in district Sialkot. Total numbers of respondents are 213. Wilcoxon Model is used to check the relationship among microfinance, income and expenditure, health and food security, housing infrastructure, education and agriculture to check the effect of microfinance on poverty. The study found a positive effect on poverty alleviation and significant impact on poor household and also observed that it leads to decrease in poverty. The result shows good and significant impact of microfinance programs on Income, health and food security, housing infrastructure, education and agriculture.
DOES FOREIGN FINANCIAL RESOURCES PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SAARC COUNTRIES? A PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS
The study was conducted to investigate the impact of foreign debt financing and foreign direct investment on economic growth for South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation. The study was conducted using two models. The findings of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) for model 1 suggests that total foreign inflows has negative and significant effect on economic growth. The findings of fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) of model 2 suggests that external debt financing and foreign direct investment has positive and significant effect on economic growth. The reason for negative effect of total foreign inflow could be caused by inefficient use of resources. Whereas in the second model the positive effect of external debt financing and foreign direct investment suggests that external debt is used for debt servicing and balance of payment corrections. Foreign direct investment effect is low in the long run because of higher budget deficit and low investment in infrastructure.
IMPACT OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ON FIRM FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN ISLAMIC FINANCIAL INSTITUTION
The paper discusses the influence and relationship between corporate governance practices and firm financial performance in Islamic banking sector. The main purpose of this study is to find or identify various factors or variables that affect the firm financial performance. Corporate governance focuses on three meters as board size, a number of meeting and audit committee size and firm financial performance has also three indicators return on equity, return on asset and earning per share. Data relates to corporate governance and firm financial performance is collected from annual reports of different Islamic banks to analyze the results. Data reveals the positive relationship between corporate governance and financial performance of Islamic banking sectors. The most outstanding results of this study has considerable and strong positive relationship in large board size and firm financial performance in developing countries as Pakistani circumstance as Pakistani circumstance.
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF ISLAMIC BANKS IN PAKISTAN
In recent years, the fast growth of Islamic banks has generated debate among economists and policy makers about stainability and performance of Islamic banks. This paper aims to analyze the financial performance of Islamic banks as compared to Conventional banks from 2006 to 2014. The paper considers Financial Ratio Analysis (FRA) to analyze and compare the performance of Islamic and Conventional banks in Pakistan. The results show that Islamic banks are better capitalized, less risky and have higher liquidity. In contrast, Islamic banks are less profitable than Conventional banks. Data related to Burj bank, Dubai Islamic Bank and Bank of Khyber in Pakistan for 2006 is not available. Size of Islamic banking industry should be enhanced by merging with Islamic financial institutions to achieve economies of scale and better efficiency. The study assists investors, creditors, debtors and managers in making better decisions. It also provides latest valuable information to regulators and policy makers in making rules and policies for financial industry in Pakistan.
THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOW ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES
This study is an attempt to analyze the impact of foreign capital inflows on economic growth in selected Asian countries. In this association, we test the hypothesis “foreign capital inflows affect positively economic growth in selected Asian countries.” The Empirical analysis is made through Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation approach using data set of six selected Asian countries from 1990-2013. The findings of the study reveal that long run economic growth in selected Asian countries is largely explained by foreign capital inflows. In addition the findings of the study indicate that physical capital and trade openness also explain the pace of economic growth positively. The study concludes that in selected Asian countries foreign capital, physical capital, and trade openness are the key determinants of economic growth.
OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES: ROLE OF CITIES IN A RAPIDLY URBANIZING PAKISTAN
Cities are considered as hubs of problems like crime, environment, traffic congestion, pollution, disease etc. But cities are, at the same time, are origin of solution of our problems and they are centers of productivity, innovation and machine for collecting people together. Pakistan’s urban population is expanding rapidly and by 2050 it is expected to be more than 50%. There is strong relationship between urbanization and economic growth. As Pakistan will observe rapid urbanization in near future so it needs to spend trillions of rupees on city building in the next 30 to 40 years. Planning decisions made today can have immense implications for cities’ role in economic growth in the coming 2 to 4 decades from now. Urbanization has gone hand in hand with economic growth. Objective of this study is to assess; Challenges of development like cities’ infrastructure investment, provision of basic services like water, sanitation, public places, affordable housing, connectivity etc., and opportunities cities offer in terms of productivity, innovation, idea and knowledge generation since cities host manufacturing and services sector which contributes roughly 4/5 of our economy.
DETERMINANTS OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENT A CASE STUDY OF MIDDLE INCOME ASIAN COUNTRIES
Investment is a catalyst for economic growth, and the efforts to explore the factors stimulating investment, whether domestic or foreign, public or private, are unstoppable. The present study attempts to investigate empirically, the factors responsible for shaping up domestic investment in the middle income Asian countries. We use a sample of twelve countries and the data extends over a period of 31 years ending at 2010. We employ empirical Bayesian approach for analysis, after undergoing the preliminary testing of data through panel unit root test, redundancy test and panel co-integration. The results suggest that domestic investment is positively determined by lagged investment, real GDP per capita growth, domestic credit to private sector, domestic saving, trade and government expenditures whereas a negative relationship of domestic investment is observed with inflation and interest rate. Findings of the study provide a torch to the policy makers who intend to boost domestic investment for attaining higher growth rates.
POVERTY, GLOBALIZATION AND THE ROLE OF STATE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR ISLAMIC COUNTRIES
This study examines the impact of globalization on cross-country poverty using a new comparable panel data set for developing countries over a long period 1970-2008. The main findings of the study are: First, openness to trade exerts adverse effects on poverty in all sample developing countries while FDI helps in reducing poverty only in OIC countries. Second, growth elasticity of poverty is negative and significant in all countries; however, the growth elasticity of poverty is high in the case of OIC countries. Third, inflation adversely affects poverty in all sample countries. Fourth and finally, the role of government is insignificant in OIC countries while it is robustly significant with a negative sign in Non-OIC countries. Thus, government spending helps in reducing poverty only in Non-OIC countries. The overall results of this study indicate that globalization accentuates not ameliorates poverty.
MOBBING AND ORGANIZATIONAL COMMITMENT: A CASE STUDY OF BANKING SECTOR IN PESHAWAR
Mobbing is a group activity in which few people are collectively exercises negative behaviors against a single individual to pressurized and enforced to bring him/her in an unsecure position and which ultimately resulted in to drag out of the organization. Current study addresses this behavior by collecting the data questionnaire survey from the banking sector of Peshawar (KPK). Questionnaires were distributed among the 90 employees of the banks with the response rate of 63.3%. Main finding of the study suggest that mobbing and organizational commitment have significant relationship. The study findings also suggest that affective commitment has highly significant association, while intension to leave the organization is weak and positively correlated to mobbing in the workplace.
ESTIMATING INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES FOR FOOD COMMODITIES USING TIME SERIES DATA FOR PAKISTAN
This study is conducted to analyze the consumer’s behavior in Pakistan regarding their income and prices of ten most commonly used food items incorporating annual disappearance data of Pakistan for the period 1971-72 to 2010-2011. Characteristics of time series data (stationarity and cointegration) have been checked before specifying the most appropriate form of the model. Three models namely LA/AIDS, static LA/AIDS and finally ECM LA/AIDS are estimated by employing the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The parameters estimates of static LA/AIDS and ECM- LA/AIDS are further used to find short- and long-run demand elasticities. The expenditure elasticities from LA/AIDS and Static LA/AIDS show that all commodities are necessities except rice and meat. However, while using ECM- LA/AIDS the results show that all commodities are necessities except milk and fruits. For almost all items the own price elasticities have negative signs and reasonable in magnitude except for rice and fruits while using LA/AIDS and Static LA/AIDS. However, own price elasticities for all commodities have negative sign with the exception of fruits while using ECM LA/AIDS.
DOES PARENTAL EDUCATION AFFECT FERTILITY RATES? EVIDENCES FROM PAKISTAN (1976-2010)
The study empirically examines the relationship b/w parental education and fertility for Pakistan from 1976-2010. We have employed Johenson Cointegration and Error correction model to test the long run as well as short run relationship. Results show that infant mortality rate and old age dependency increase the fertility while per capita income, urbanization and education of both male and female reduce the fertility. The impact of male education on fertility is smaller than that of female education. The possible choices for lowering fertility rate are both implementing low infant mortality rate and promoting female education policies. Lowering fertility rate through increasing access to quality reproductive health services is an important policy.
KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, LEADERSHIP AND VISION: A DIVINE PERSPECTIVE
The objective of this paper is to define the term ‘knowledge’ in Divine perspective and to explain its relationship with wisdom, leadership and vision of an organization. The paper provides a unique conceptual framework for learning organizations where authentic sources of knowledge combined with scientific knowledge is shown as a foundation for crating wisdom, leadership and vision in organizational setting. Divine knowledge is authentic and is based on spirituality, religiosity and ethics while scientific knowledge comprises professional and technical know how about a phenomenon. Knowledge is defined as the sum total of Divine knowledge and scientific knowledge. This combination of knowledge will create wisdom both at individual level and at organizational level. Leadership equipped with this knowledge and wisdom, will be authentic and the vision of such organizations is sound, clear and compelling.
OPTIMAL NEIGHBOR BALANCED DESIGNS TO IMPROVE AGRICULTUAL ECONOMY
Agricultural growth plays a vital role in improving Pakistan’s economy. Agriculture sector of Pakistan is considered as a major productive sector of Pakistan’s economy. Around 61% population is living in more than 50,000 villages in Pakistan. Economic development, progress and prosperity cannot be achieved without improving agricultural sector. It provides employment opportunities and produces exportable items for foreign exchange. So, agricultural sector is helpful to make rapid economic development. Neighbor designs increase the production and improve efficiency in agriculture, horticulture and forestry by minimizing the experimental error. In agriculture, guiding principle of neighbor design is to enhance production through effectiveness of cost and time by minimizing neighboring treatment/plot effect which contributes significantly to GDP growth and leads to poverty reduction. Neighbor effects in agriculture can be observed in experiments where tall plants effect the growth and production of neighboring smaller plants. Neighbor designs reduce this neighbor effect. In this paper optimal neighbor balanced designs are developed which increase the agricultural economy. A series of optimal one-dimensional neighbor designs have been developed for odd prime number of treatments.
RENT-SEEKING, INSTITUTIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A TALE OF RENT-SEEKING SOCIETY
The institutional perspective of cross-country differences in economic outcomes gives contrasting explanations on the persistence of inefficient institutions in developing countries. Colonization, social fragmentation and the existence and use of natural resources are the most frequently discussed causes in the available literature. In this study, we analyze all the three explanations together by providing a case study of Nigeria. Nigeria is characterized by colonial legacy, social divide revealed by ethnicity and religion, and huge windfalls from oil. Based on our descriptive analysis, we find that the lack and incoherence of formal institutional order is the main factor for Nigerian underdevelopment. Ethnic politics has shaped the formal institutional framework which is inefficient and incoherent. Colonial legacy has reinforced the effect of ethnicity by failing to provide a national ideology and instead, providing a regional structure to rule. Similarly, the windfalls from oil have intensified the effect of ethnicity by invoking civil conflicts, arising mainly from the distribution of common pool. Thus, no single factor on its own can explain the persistence of inefficient institutions; rather, it is the combination of exogenous and endogenous factors that shape institutions.
THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DOMESTIC VERSUS EXTERNAL DEBT ON MONEY DEMAND: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN
This study attempts to analyze the relationship between government debt and money demand in the context of Pakistan by taking the annual data over the period of 1976 to 2012. In this regard, effects of government domestic alongside external debt are examined separately under the framework of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach of cointegration. The findings of Bound test analysis and negative sing of ECM (-1) term, both indicate that positive significant relationship exists between domestic debt and demand of real money balances in the long run as well as in short run. It suggests that government internal debt is the source of net wealth and bondholders feel them wealthier by considering the interest income as an increase in their private wealth. On the other hand, the empirical result revealed that no cointegration relationship exists between external debt and money demand, which implies that external debt does not view as a source of net wealth and government of Pakistan remains ineffective to transfer the proceeds from public external debt to the domestic individuals who are willing to invest or consume. So, in our findings, only domestic debt is appeared as a missing variable in the money demand function.
AN ESTIMATION OF MARKETING MARGINS OF INLAND FISH IN DISTRICT FAISALABAD, PAKISTAN
This paper attempts to estimate marketing margins of major intermediaries involved in the marketing of inland fish in district Faisalabad using primary source of data. Formal interviews were conducted from a representative sample of 80 farmers, 40 commission agents and 40 retailers selected using stratified random sampling technique with proportional allocation. Findings of the study indicated, commission agents earned Rs.560 and Rs.475 per maund as net margin respectively in case of Rahu and Thaila breeds. Similarly the net margins of retailers were estimated as Rs.675 and Rs.450 per maund for Rahu and Thail breeds respectively. High commission fee beyond the limits is just the exploitation of the retailers. Government should lower down the commission fee and fix up to a reasonable level for facilitating the marketing functions.
IMPACT OF FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CO2 EMISSIONS: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN (1980-2010), A REVISIT
The present study empirically analyzes the impact of fossil fuel energy consumption on CO2 emission for Pakistan using data from 1980-2010. Our broad objective is to test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and factors that affect the energy consumption. We have used Johansen Cointegration approach and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to test the long run as well as short run relationship between variables. A log linear quadratic equation is specified to test the EKC hypothesis. Results support the existence of inverted U hypothesis. Industrial value added and trade openness positively affect the CO2 emission while financial development reduces the CO2 emission. Results of the energy consumption equation show that income, investment, population and manufacture export positively affect the energy consumption while manufacture import negatively affect the energy consumption.
Multiple Indicators Hamdani Formula for HEC Journal Recognition and Ranking
Since last two years, Dr. Syed Nisar Hamdani along with a team of academicians is working on a new multiple indicators formula for recognition and ranking of academic journals by Higher Education Commission. This article comments on the debate article published in KER Vol. 25, No.1, 2016 and extends the debate about why the newly proposed formula is needed for recognition of economics or social science journals and how far it is different from the existing formula of journal recognition by Higher Education Commission of Pakistan.
The primary research aim of the Divine Economics framework is to provide an empirical basis of behavioral comparison between religious and non-religious agents with regards to their economic and non-economic choices. Divine Economics framework is an effort to establish cross communication between mainstream economists and faith-inspired economists by using an appropriate and universal methodological framework, which is sufficiently scientific, objective and broadly agreeable in academics. Divine Economics framework endogenizes religious attributes which may potentially enable the comparison of choices between religious and non-religious as well as less-religious and more religious economic agents. However, reliance on stated preferences, overlap between religious and non-religious activities, inability to observe the motivation and intention behind choices and to judge the quality of religious activities are some of the challenges in this research framework. In the future research, Divine Economics framework could incorporate how faithful economic agents use common property resources and public goods. It can explore whether the faithful economic agents differ in their choices with regards to biodiversity and negative externalities. Lastly, the future research in Divine Economics framework can also explore whether faithful economic agents differ in their willingness to pay for public goods, environmental protection programs, animal protection programs, social protection programs and other voluntary welfare activities.
Modeling Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Interest Rate Volatility in Pakistan
The purpose of this study is to model and forecast volatility of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, nominal and real exchange rate, and money market rate and Treasury bill rate in the context of Pakistan. For this purpose, five linear and four non-linear models are used. The estimation period is January 1985 to December 2013. The in-sample estimation results show that the asymmetric GARCH family models well captured the volatility dynamics as compared to the symmetric GARCH models. We show that for NERR, RERR, MMR, and TBR linear models forecasted well as compared to the non-linear models. However, for both CBNR and WTIR, non-linear models forecasted well. Overall, this study concluded that linear models forecasted well as compared to the non-linear models on the basis of minimum value of RMSE. These findings are important for the policy makers, investors, and financial market participants for making appropriate policies, investment, and asset performance evaluation.
Determinants of Women Empowerment in Pakistan: Some New Evidences from PSLM (2011-12)
There are various criteria and determinants to quantify Women Empowerment. The present study attempted to address two key concerns; Women decision about education and Women decision about more children to explain Women Empowerment in Pakistan. For the quantitative analysis, data set from PSLM (2011-2012) has been used. Binary Logistic Regression is applied as an estimation strategy. In addition, the detailed descriptive analysis has done prior to empirical analysis to see the relative importance of different determinants in Women Empowerment. The study reveals that the ration of empowered women is very low in the country; unfortunately, women enjoy relatively substandard status as compared to men. Education level of women generally improves decision making capacity of a woman. Similarly, age, type of educational institutions and paid work proved to be significant factors of women decision about education. On the other hand, increasing number of children enhance the level of a woman empowerment in family. Further, there exists huge proportionate disparity between rural and urban women regarding the decision making aptitude. Even though the government is running number of programs to address the issue but still the situation has remained gloomy mainly because there exist highly constrained autonomy of females in contrast with males within the society. There is a dire need to extend awareness to empower women across all of the districts of country to fasten the development process.
Syed Kafait Hussain Kafait Hussain Naqvi
An Empirical Investigation of the Determinants of Savings and Investment Relationship: Evidence from South Asia
This study examines the possible determinants of savings and investment (S-I) relationship in case of South Asia. The study adopted a unified framework to investigate relative significance of possible factors of S-I relationship. Firstly; saving retention coefficients has been estimated for each of six countries included in the analysis for the period of 1980-2015. Secondly, the dependent variable of saving retention coefficient has been regressed on the potential factors- country size, productivity shocks, interest rate differentials and openness-for the S-I association. The results reveal that S-I form a stable long run relationship for each country except Pakistan. Further, regression analysis indicates that country size, interest rate parity and productivity shock have positive and significant role in explaining the FH puzzle, while openness of the economy has no influence on the S-I interaction. Few important policy implications have been drawn from the results of the study; (i) ineffectiveness of financial openness in explaining the FH puzzle may indicate that these countries are unable to attract the investors, as investment do not merely depends upon the normal returns (iii) these countries need to bring consistency in economic policies so that openness could pay the desire role and (iv) our study also suggests that interest rates or country risk premium influenced the degree of financial integration. The central banks of South Asia countries should maintain interest rate parity with the rest of the world.
Economic Growth and Income Inequality Nexus: An Empirical Analysis for Pakistan
This study investigates the impact of income inequality on economic growth in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1975 to 2013. The empirical analysis for the effect of income inequality on economic growth is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration. The empirical findings show that inequality exerts significantly positive influence on annual economic growth of Pakistan. It implies that annual growth is not driven by the poor which is also confirmed by the negative influence of poverty on growth. Though inequality exerts positive influence on growth but such type of growth cannot be sustained as the poor are not part of the growth process.
The Contributing Factor of Dividend Imbursement Behavior: An Empirical Study on Textile Sector of Pakistan
The dividend payment behavior of the corporate firms is determined by number of factors which have never been researched in Pakistani textile industry. The main aim of this study is to identify those factors which likely to play an important role in determining the dividend payment behavior of the textile firms in Pakistan. The data of 169 textile firms listed on KSE is collected from the Balance Sheet Analysis (official document issued by SBP) for the year of 2003 to2015. This pooled data based on 1218 firm year observations is analyzed by using Logistic Regression Model and overall model of this study is found to be significant with X2(8, N= 1218) = 421.25, p<0.0001 and this significance of the model is also supported by Hosmer and Lemeshow Test (p-value > 0.05). The results indicate that firm growth and debt to equity ratio have negative relationship with the firms’ dividend payment behavior while rests of the factors are positively related to dividend payment behavior of studied firms. Our findings also indicate that size of the firm, earnings, debt to equity ratio; volatility and tangibility are the significant factors of firms’ dividend payment behavior. More specifically the size of the firm is found to be the most dominant factor in context of the Pakistan’s textile sector. We also found that there are very less number of large firms which regularly pay dividends but most of the firms use their earnings for growth rather than paying it as dividends. In addition, they often use long term loans for financing rather than issuing stocks.
Socio-Economic Factors Influencing Students’ Drop Out At Primary Level: A Case Study of Working Folks Grammar Schools District Haripur
The purpose of current study was to investigate Socio-Economic Factors Influencing Students Drop Out At primary level. The data are taken from working folks grammar schools of District Haripur. Keeping in view the importance of primary education for national and human resource development, Pakistan in all its educational policies and plans has laid great emphasis upon the promotion and universalization of primary education. However it has partial success in achieving this goal till today. It was found that family affairs, conflict between mother and father, inferiority complex due to social reasons, bad company of the students in the society, poverty of parents and the thinking part of students are the major reasons contributing to student’s dropout. In addition to these, the conservativeness of the society, lack of comparable rights to students, low rate of literacy, unequal partition of knowledge, ecofinancial desires of family and lack of job opportunities also contribute to student’s dropout. These conclusions are aligned with past studies on similar subject such as Ghafoor and Baloch (1990) and Joubish & Khurram (2011)
Public Expenditure and its impact on Economic Growth: A case of Pakistan
The public expenditures are very important and basic necessities of every country. It plays crucial and dynamic role in each economy and government has responsibility to provide them. This study examined public expenditures impact on economic growth by using time series data from1982-2017 in case of Pakistan. The variables are growth rate as GDP, development expenditure, defense expenditures, health expenditures and education expenditures. The ordinary least square (OLS) test and CUSUM, CUSUM Square tests are applied to check relationship between public expenditures and economic growth. This study concludes with mix results, which indicates that there is a significant positive relationship between development and health expenditures on economic growth. Furthermore, defense and education expenditures have negative relationship on economic growth. Moreover, it is recommended that public expenditures should be used in appropriate way; if it is not used in accurate place it would not be favourable for Pakistan economy.
The world is rapidly transforming into global village and trade liberalization has gained exceptional attention from various developed as well as developing. Pakistan has been facing continuous fiscal deficit problem on an average of 5.2 percent of the GDP. Pakistan has adopted a number of tax reforms and administrative measures to improve tax collections. The policy option of trade liberalization causes the problem of a reduction in the revenue collection from customs duty. Reduction of trade tax revenue due to trade liberalizing is a common problem in both the developing and developed countries. Thee research focused on the fiscal costs of trade liberalization, which Pakistan has had to endure. The study tried to estimate the determinants of the tax yield in Pakistan, to improve the tax capacity of Federal Board of Revenue. The fiscal policy maker facing issue to raise the tax revenue to compensate the loss of trade tax revenue due to trade liberalization. In this case study we tried to highlight the determinants of tax revenue of Pakistan and estimates made for the period of 1995-2015 through VAR model. The Wald coefficient test (F-test) which showed the existence of a strong co-integration between tax revenue and all the other independent variables. The long-run coefficients of these variables showed that effective tariff rates, agriculture to GDP ratios, and capital openness have shown significant and positive impacts on the tax revenue of Pakistan during the period under consideration. It is suggested that supportive macroeconomic policies and conducive environment facilitate trade policies in Pakistan as tax revenue determinants are identified for successful implementation of trade liberalization policies in the economy of Pakistan.
DOES TRUST MATTER? AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION INTO THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRUST AND CORRUPTION
The study examines the relationship between social values measured as trust and corruption using the cross sectional data for a sample of 84 countries for the period 1984 to 2014. The study employs OLS as well as instrumental variable techniques for the estimation purposes while includes economic development, economic freedom and trade openness as control variables. Consistent estimates of social values are obtained with alternative estimation techniques confirming the negative relationship between social values and corruption. Additionally, the study finds that economic development and economic freedom have significant negative impact on corruption however, the study could not document any significant evidence for trade openness. The empirical findings of the study have important implications for policymakers while designing policies to curb corruption. The findings suggest that social values along with economic freedom are quite helpful in controlling corruption and therefore, social values should be focused in educational programs and in the planning of human capital investments along with traditional determinants of corruption.
ROLE OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS IN THE MOVEMENTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS FOR PAKISTAN
The study investigates the role of external occurred in Pakistan’s economy during 1981 to 2012 with the following supporting variables (in literature known as fundamentals of exchange rate) including capital inflows (KI), trade openness (TOP) in the movements of Real Exchange Rate (RER) in Pakistan. In order to examine the role of external shocks, Error correction model (ECM), Johnson Cointeregation Technique and Impulse Response Function (IRF) have been applied to capture the short -run and long-run dynamics of the impact of external on the RER. Econometrics analysis supports the results of Cointegration, ECM and IRF analyses. Role of external shocks in the movements as well as determination of RER in Pakistan has also been analyzed. Exchange rate would be appreciated due to external shocks & improvement in the fundamentals like KI, where as deviation of RER significantly from its equilibrium level require immediate measures to correct it in order to maintain the external competitiveness of the economy. The results also reveal that external shock (D1) has lager influence on RER in short run as well as in the long run.
An Assessment of Pre and Post Pak-China Free Trade Agreement: A Comparative Advantage Analysis of Textile Sector of Pakistan
Regional trade is a huge opportunity for economic growth in Pakistan and must be assigned priority in Pakistan's economic policy. The signing of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and China in 2006 brought an opportunity for Pakistan to improve its overall trade performance while steering its exports composition towards geographically viable and hence, more profitable locations. The textile sector of Pakistan is the largest manufacturing sector and China lies in the top 10 export partners of Pakistan. In order to investigate the trade relations between Pakistan and China in light of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), this study examines pre and post Pak-China FTA effects for the textile sector of Pakistan using revealed comparative advantage technique, Balassa Index (1965) at Harmonized system HS-2, HS-4 and HS-6 digits level. A comparative analysis based on the two phases of Pak-China FTA, for phase I, the study considers 2004 as pre-FTA period and 2013 as post-FTA period. However, for phase II, 2013 is considered as pre-FTA and 2015 as post-FTA period. Additionally, the study further investigates the future prospects of textile sector by calculating an indicative potential of the top potential textile exports to identify that how Pakistan can further be benefited from trade with China in the future. The findings of the study revealed that the export potential of the textile sector has declined and showed greater focus on low value added products. Additionally, an indicative potential analysis also showed that the top potential textile exports showed higher value of indicative potential over and above US$ 100 million in 2013 but due to decline in China’s demand, these were products removed from the list. This is because of the inefficiencies of the textile sector particularly due to the prolonged energy crises which have been imposing adverse effects on the industrial sector of the country.The government should take serious efforts to take the economy out of the energy crisis first and to ensure the growth of textile exports.
How Do the Technology Transfer and Trade Openness Affect Income inequality: A Panel Data Analysis?
This study examines the impact of trade openness on the income inequality in the developing and developed countries. Additionally, we see if technology transfer and changes in the ratio of skilled to unskilled labor and educational attainment have any role in influencing the income inequality. We used panel data for 104 countries from both developed and developing countries during 1980-2014. We estimated the relationship using fixed effects and random effects panel regression analysis as well as system GMM technique for robustness check. We find that trade openness, expenditure on education and ratio of the skilled to unskilled labor significantly reduce inequality in both developed and developing countries. Increase in technology transfer and role of religion in politics significantly reduces inequality in the developing countries only whereas corruption increases income inequality in the developing countries only.
Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits and Feldstein-Horioka Hypotheses: Empirical Analysis form Pakistan
The study attempts to investigate relationship between both budget and current account deficits for the Pakistan using annual data from 1976 to 2016. In this regard, three hypotheses, Ricardian Equivalence (RE), Twin Deficits (TD) and the Feldstein-Horioka (F-H) are tested under the framework of Multivariate Cointegration techniques (Johansen, Autoregressive distributed lag) and Error correction modeling. The cointegration results reject the RE hypothesis and support the validity of TD hypothesis for Pakistan. It implies that debt-finance tax cut raised the interest rate which attracted the capital inflow. The findings of error correction model also support the short run linkage between both deficits and confirm that long run relationship exists between them, when interest and exchange rates are included in the model. The results of cointegration test further reveal a positive relationship between the current account deficit and investment in the long run. The long run coefficient of investment indicates the high degree of foreign capital mobility and rejects the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis. However, positive and less than one value of short-run coefficient of investment provide weak support for the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis. So, the empirical results suggest that investment (coefficient of foreign capital inflow) has a significantly positive impact on current account deficit only in the long run.
Privatization Predicament and Shari’ah Compliant Alternate Solutions
Abstract This paper proposes viable Shariah based alternate solutions to the privatization dilemma. Instead of privatization through outright sale of national assets, equivalent funds can be raised through long term Shariah structures without alienating national assets permanently. This will help safeguard public welfare and in the line with Maqsaid al-Shari’ah, Hifzal al-Mall, and Mamala fiqh Marsala. Privatization of national assets is generally a matter of great public interest. This paper reviews reasonable arguments which do exist on both sides of the divide. Nevertheless, once privatization has been done reversing the process would be neither fair, nor justifiable and hence the balance of convenience in this public policy matter tilts, somewhat in favor of not privatizing national assets, if reasonable alternates are available, or possible for achieving most, if not all of the objectives which the privatization process is expected to achieve without permanently alienating national assets. Keywords: privatization dilemma, national assets, spectrum, family silver, public policy.
Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables: An Application of SVAR Methodology for Pakistan
Change in government spending and tax has significant impact on main macroeconomic activities. This study aims to investigation dynamic effects of fiscal policy shocks on macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The empirical results are carried out by using the structural vector autoregressive model. Two identification approaches, Blanchard and Perotti and recursive approach are used to identify the fiscal policy shocks. The analysis is conducted on quarterly data for the variables government spending, tax revenue, prices, private investment and GDP for the period 1975-2-14. The empirical results shows that government expenditure shock and tax revenue shock relatively highest on price and lowest on private investment. The government spending shocks decrease private investment and GDP, while tax revenue shock increase GDP and government spending. The results suggests that higher government spending have negative impact on private investment due to the large part of government consumption financing from the private sector. It is concluded that tax revenue shock increase the government spending, while government spending does not significant impact on the tax revenue. This result conform that expansion of fiscal policy increase the public debt services in Pakistan due to fiscal miss-management. Key wards: Fiscal Policy Shocks, Macroeconomic Variables, SVAR Methodology
Wellbeing and Informal Institutions: An Empirical Analysis
Abstract The study investigates the relationship between informal institutions and wellbeing. We find in the literature work related to formal institutions and wellbeing. However, the studies related to informal institution and wellbeing are rare. Formal institutions are rules and regulations which are well defined and aims for achieving some objective in the society such as police, judiciary, government etc. In the other hand informal institutions are rules which are not documented but observed in the society for long and have social approval. It is assumed that strong formal and informal institutions increase efficiency and productivity of individuals and societies by lowering transactions cost. For empirical analysis of relationship between informal institution and wellbeing we use primary data conducted under Divine Economics Survey 2017. This survey has been conducted in 2017 in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and in various cities of Pakistan. The survey has many sections however we use the section about institutions and the basic information. Our response variable is wellbeing and measured by single satisfaction question. Because our response variable is discrete in nature and have more than one category so ordered logit model is used. Results show a positive and significant effect of informal institution on wellbeing while controlling for other variables. Findings about other control variables are in line with previous studies.
Interest Payments, Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth :A Case Study Of Pakistan
Abstract The huge fiscal deficit negatively affects economic growth in the long run consistent to results of Mohanty (2013). The findings coefficient of FD is -0.44 indicate that there is a negative and significant relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth in the long run. Coefficient of DEXP is 0.71 and has a positive and significant impact, so that it will enhance the productivity of both human capital and physical capital, which increases economic growth. Fiscal deficit for capital expenditure is not a problem up to some threshold level. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model, error correction model (ECM), impulse response function and variance decomposition are used for time-series data analysis. Interest payments have a negative and significant coefficient, which analysis the negative correlation between growth and interest payments. The lagged value of the error correction term is negative and significant. It is showing convergence from short-run disequilibrium towards the long-run equilibrium so, a short-run relationship also exists among variables of interest payments, fiscal deficit, development expenditure and economic growth. Key Words: Fiscal deficit, Interest payments, Economic growth, Development expenditure JEL classification: C87, E21, F65, H61, H62, P35.
Measuring efficiency Analysis: Islamic VS Commercial bank in Pakistan
Abstract This paper seeks to analyze efficiency of Islamic banking sector with conventional banking sector in Pakistan. For this purpose to represent Islamic banking sector, Meezan Bank Limited is selected, as the bank operates on the basis of Islamic banking system. While for conventional banking sector Habib Bank Limited is selected. To compare the performance and efficiency certain inputs and outputs have been selected. Assets, Employees and Branches have been taken as inputs while outputs are deposits held by these banks and profit after tax. Data Envelopment Analysis technique is used using TORA operation research software to analyze and interpret results. Conclusively it is noted that both banks are performing efficient with regard to available resources. Hence an increase in inputs will have positive impact on the outputs. Key Words: Banking efficiency, Data envelopment analysis, Islamic banking system, conventional banking system.
Financial Development, Innovation, and Economic Growth: The Case of Selected Asian Countries
We empirically examine the effect of financial sector development on economic growth by taking into account innovations for the sample of twelve Asian countries. We estimate panel data model by applying random effects estimator. We use balance panel data over the time period of 1995 to 2016. Our study provides significant evidence that in the presence of innovation, economic growth declines with financial development. However, innovation and financial development both are positively related to economic growth. Other variables namely the rate of inflation and the domestic saving to GDP ratio also appear significant in determining economic growth in the selected countries during the examined period. Keywords: Economic Growth, Innovation, GDP, Domestic saving, Inflation, Panel data, Random effect model
Food Security Analysis in Pakistan: A Multi-Indicator Approach
This study attempts to examine the food security situation in Pakistan. It examines the different dimensions of food security in Pakistan by analysing the underlying indicators developed by FAO. The study reveals that although the average food availability in terms of average calorie supply per capita in the country has increased from 1870 to 2450 during 1961-2013 but the average food deficit per person per day is still present in the country. Food security index shows that, despite the overall increase in food production or availability of food, the food security situation is deteriorating over time in Pakistan and it is a serious matter of concern for the policy makers to think about it. Although, agricultural production is increased but speed of this increment is slow as compare to the growth of population. Since, agricultural output is the only source of food supply. Hence, it is necessary to raise agricultural growth to make Pakistan as a food secure country. However, Government is continuously ignoring agricultural sector and resources are shifted to industrial and services sector in order to improve their performance. How the performance of these sectors affects the agricultural growth is an important question to analyse the future of food supply in the country.
Relationship between Capital Structure and Financial Performance of Textile Sector Companies
This study tests the relationship between capital structure and financial performance of the companies in the textile sector. In this study, correlation matrix and linear regression equation are used by ordinary least squares (OLS) to investigate the impact of capital structure and financial performance. Data has been collected from textile sector companies of the time frame 2011-2015 through respective annual reports and State Bank of Pakistan database. Debt to equity (DE) and debt to total funds (DTF) is used to represent the capital structure and return on capital employed (ROCE) shows the profitability of companies. Findings of the study show that DE positively influences ROCE of the companies. Furthermore, DTF also has a positive impact on ROCE. The relationship between capital structure and financial performance is significantly positive. Companies must undertake the optimal level of debt and equity ratio in their capital structure. This study is significant for the new and old textile companies operating under PSX to make optimal capital structure decision and to raise profitability.
Copyright (c) 2019 Muzaffar Asad, Khizar Iftikhar Iftikhar, Ammar Yasir Jafary
Institutional Quality, Conflict and Aid Dependency
This study attempts to explore the impact of foreign aid on the quality of governance while also taking into consideration the role of both internal and external conflict. Conflict does affect the governance directly by inducing instability and volatility in the economy, this precariousness gives rise to inauspicious climate that puts off the investment. Low level of investment and output will in turn decrease the required tax revenues or the available funds that can be used to improve the quality of governance. Conflict and foreign aid jointly determine the state of an economy and have a great impact on the institutional quality. Annual data from 1984 to 2010 have been used for the Asian developing economies, the results indicate that aid as well as both external or internal conflict have negative impact on the institutional quality and these results are robust for various alternative specifications.
Copyright (c) 2019 Unbreen Qayyum, Sohail Anjum
Examining the Relationship between Literacy Rate and Poverty in Pakistan
Education plays an important role to pave way towards economic growth. Investment in education enhances the living standards and it is necessary for economic growth and social well-being of a society. This study forecasted the education status and its impact on economic growth by taking data from 1971 to 2016 in Pakistan. Secondary data were taken from International Finance Statistics and World Bank Development Indicators. The variables included in the research were poverty, Education status, and Economic growth. Time series analysis was carried out on the data. The empirical methodology adopted for this purpose includes the use of Augmented Dickey Fuller test, WALD test, Johanson cointegration test, and VECM test. The study found long-run relationship between economic growth and the education status when poverty serves as dependent variable measuring economic growth in case of Pakistan. This showed that education does affect economic growth in the long run but not in short run. The interdependency between the variables suggested that policies should be formulated that would have a long lasting positive impact on the education status of the population and the continuity of the policies to achieve its objectives is more essential.
Copyright (c) 2019 Ezzah Batul, Muhammad Azhar Haseeb, Shazia Abdul Sattar
Economic Empowerment through Human Capital, Social Development and Poverty Control Strategies - A Case Study of Bagh District (AJ&K)
It is found that human capital is necessary to gain sustainable growth. Their practical implementation can effectively alleviate poverty, especially in Rural Areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. This paper proceeds to examine the role of human capital and social development in achieving sustainable growth & lessening poverty. By providing sufficient infrastructure, training and knowledge, sustainable growth can be achieved. A case study is added to show the example of human capital in achieving sustainable growth and development. Approaches to poverty reduction are also included.
Multiple Indicators Hamdani Formula for HEC Journal Recognition and Ranking Reply to debate article of the Editor KER, Vol. 25, No. 1
ince last two years, Dr. Syed Nisar Hamdani along with a team of academicians is working on a new multiple indicators formula for recognition and ranking of academic journals by Higher Education Commission. This article comments on the debate article published in KER Vol. 25, No.1, 2016 and extends the debate about why the newly proposed formula is needed for recognition of economics or social science journals and how far it is different from the existing formula of journal recognition by Higher Education Commission of Pakistan.
The Role of Religiosity in Analyzing Households’ Willingness to Pay for Water
This paper analyzes how religious beliefs affect willingness to pay (WTP) for water, apart from the conventional factors identified in the literature. The motivations behind this exploration are multiple. Firstly, the recently presented Divine Capital Model (Hamdani, 2012) 14 claimed that the Divinely attributes such as spirituality, religiosity, ethics and reinforcing infrastructures significantly affect the human decisions for time and resource allocation. Secondly, a preliminary evidence (Attique, 2013) shows that religious beliefs and attitudes15 have a stronger influence on households’ WTP for water. Using the Divine Capital Model, the present study modeled the WTP for water to see the effect of economic and non-economic factors. The study is based on data from 245 households in District Rawalakot in the state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Pakistan, where availability of water and access to improved and better water system is an issue. The empirical analysis is carried out using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method of estimation. The findings indicate that religious variables, i.e. prayers, belief, practices have a significant effect on the sample households’ WTP for water. The results of the study also reveal that households with a higher expenditure are willing to pay more for an improved and better water system. This finding is consistent with the environmental economic theory which stipulates that demand for improved environmental quality increases with income. Education level of head of household is positively influencing WTP for water, which stems from the fact that educated people are more willing to pay for improvements in water quality because they can value it. These findings have many implications; there is a scope to improve water services in view of the Divinely attributes of people, government can enhance people’s participation in water improvement schemes through Religious motivation of people.
Social Capital Based Social Protection through Philanthropic Organization
Social protection is a preventive, remedial and supporting mechanism against social risks, losses, un-employment, crimes, diseases, death etc. Social Protection may be provided through different strategies, policies and activities for reduction of un-employment, disease, and risk to health, disability, crimes and social threats. This paper discus the existing gaps in social protection to individuals, groups and their dependents. It mainly focuses on three types of social protection gaps Shah (2013). These social protection gaps are filled through different organizations such as; Government, international, non-governmental, religious, social and philanthropic. The paper identifies the role and contribution of the philanthropic organizations in social protection of individuals, groups, community etc. The philanthropic organizations directly or indirectly contribute to social protection in different parts of the country. This paper gives analysis by incorporating role and contribution of philanthropic organizations. The role of philanthropic organizations in social protection through partnership with state may be more efficient and sustainable in society.
Equalization of Returns to Education in Pakistan: A Dynamical District-Level Analysis
This study intends to seek the dynamical change (convergence/divergence) in returns to education at district level using Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement (PSLM) data (2004-05 to 2012-13) in Pakistan. This study finds out that the supply and demand forces are not working symmetrically for all districts of the country which is against the ideals of inclusiveness. Convergence phenomenon is being observed only for the districts of Punjab province. It shows that institutional mechanisms in deprived provinces are performing poor in the context of symmetric management of supply and demand of educated labor force.
Inequality, Financial Development and Government in Low-Income Developing Countries
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of financial and economic development on cross-country income inequality using a panel data set from 50 low-income developing counties over a long period, 1970-2008. The results show that financial development helps in reducing inequalities, but a non-monotonic relationship between financial development and inequality does not hold. The study, however, finds a non-monotonic relationship between inequality and the level of economic development, which supports Kuznet's inverted-U hypothesis. The government emerges as a major player in reducing income inequalities as its role is significant in all models. The study suggests that the policy makers must focus primarily on economic development to reduce inequalities. Since financial development, irrespective of its level, also reduces inequalities, policy makers also need to encourage financial reforms.
THE IMPACT OF RELIGIOUS HUMAN CAPITAL ON INDIVIDUAL’S WELL BEING IN PAKISTAN
The major objective of the study is to examine the effects of religious capital on individuals’ wellbeing. In received literature on the subject various factors have been investigated that affecting wellbeing this study attempt to check out weather religious human capital can affect wellbeing/self-satisfaction. We used the data set of Divine economic survey’s 2009 is based on 807 households for this study. Our Wellbeing index takes values from zero to 100, i.e. it is actually summation of responses against a number of questions. In order to check the effect of religious capital on individual’s wellbeing we used Cronbach Alpha test for reliability of the questionnaire, descriptive analysis and OLS technique for results. In the empirical analysis it is found that religious capital like worship, religious education, time allocation for religious activities and interaction with religious fellows, charity etc. have positive effect on individual’s” wellbeing. Keywords: Worship, Wellbeing, Religious capital, Divine Economics.
RELEVANCE OF LIFE-CYCLE HYPOTHESIS FOR LOW-INCOME COUNTRY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION FROM PAKISTAN
This study investigates the nexus between wealth and aggregate consumption, under the lifecycle hypothesis. The study covers annual time-series data from 1973 to 2015 where dynamic-OLS (DOLS) is applied for estimating this nexus for Pakistan. However in order to check the robustness Ridge regression is also applied, which endorse the finding of original estimates. The study results show that MPC out of income is ranges from 0.55 to 0.59, while the wealth coefficient is insignificant with negative sign. Further the age-structure variables i.e. overall dependency and working age dependency ratio both have negative effect on consumption. The overall results refuted the lifecycle conjecture in case of Pakistan, as the wealth has in-significant effect on consumption and dependency ratios have contradictory sign against the lifecycle assertions. The non-existence of lifecycle hypothesis may be, plausibly, due to some distinctive feature of Pakistani society. Such as, the significant negative sign of dependency ratio support our social behavior where old-age people sacrifice their consumption for younger and another motive is bequest which certainly dominates in Pakistani society. JEL Classification: D10; D12; E21. Keywords: Aggregate Consumption; Wealth; Lifecycle Hypothesis; Pakistan
A STUDY ON VALUE RELEVANCE OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE DISCLOSURE: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN STOCK EXCHANGE
This paper focus on the reform process taking place in Pakistan related to disclosures of financial information in annual reports at the same time changes in regulatory framework related to corporate governance. For this purpose, data of fifty companies listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange is used for the time period 2010-2013 by applying panel regression. Corporate governance disclosure index is adopted to empirically analyze the impact of corporate governance disclosures on the value relevance of firm. Results of panel regression show that overall corporate governance disclosure have positive and significant impact on firm value, whereas from results of sub-indices ownership structure disclosure is more relevant for investors as compared to other two subindices: board and management structures disclosure and financial information disclosure. Further, results show that control variables liquidity, profitability and firm size have positive impact on firm value. Keywords: Corporate Governance, Value Relevance, Pakistan Stock Exchange, Corporate Governance Disclosure, panel data. Article classification: Research paper JEL Classification: G32, G34, G39
ROLE OF SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS IN POVERTY ALLEVIATION: AN ASSESSMENT OF URBAN INFORMAL SECTOR
Increasing poverty has featured prominently in the policymaking landscape of Pakistan for several decades now. We address this issue and shed light on one of the links that contribute towards generating income and alleviating poverty in urban Pakistan. In doing so, we utilize primary data from the most urbanized district of Punjab (i.e., Lahore). In 2015, we conducted a household survey from 184 informal sector workers to examine how possibly the informal sector can contribute towards employment creation and poverty mitigation. By analyzing the data through the Probit model, results show that education and presence of assets are still top remedies to alleviate the poverty of informal sector workers. Keywords: Human development; Informal sector; Pakistan; Poverty alleviation; Probittechnique. JEL Classification: J46, O17
EFFECT OF PARENTAL SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS ON ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT OF SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
This study aimed at exploring the role of parental socioeconomic status on academic achievement of secondary school students. The objectives of the study were; to explore different levels of parental socioeconomic status of students, to find out the effect of different aspects of parental socioeconomic status viz. parental education, parental occupation, parental income, parental living, parental relation, and family system on academic achievement of secondary school students, and to compare the availability of facilities for male and female students in the target population. For this, 1438 students were randomly selected from 84 schools of Abbottabad, Haripur and Mansehra, of Hazara Division, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through stratified random sampling technique. The data was collected through a pre-framed questionnaire about the socioeconomic status of the students validated by experts whereas marks obtained in Grade 9 were taken as Students’ academic achievement. The collected data was analyzed by using percentage, Multiple Regression Model and student T- test. The Results indicated that parental profession, parental education, parental income, alive of both mothers and fathers, as well as availability of facilities significantly contributed towards improving the academic achievement of their children at secondary level. Additionally, boys are more facilitated and compared to girls. Keywords: Academic Achievement, Parental Education, Parental income, Socio-economic status
E-GOVERNMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS
In recent years, the rising importance of e-government has gained the attention of researchers and policy makers. The strategic objective of e-government in a society is to facilitate the efficient provision of services to its citizens. The purpose of this study is to explore e-government and economic growth nexus, by employing large panel data of 154 countries across the world from 2003 to 2010. The results reveal that e-government is an important tool that drives economic growth of a country. The empirical findings of random and fixed effects model show that implementation of e-government causes high per capita GDP. The dynamic panel data model by dealing with the problem of endogeneity also confirms the validity of the results of FEM and REM. The main findings are robust to control variables and different econometric techniques. JEL Classification: C23; H1; J24; O40